A former police chief has warned that the arrest of international crime figure Daniel Kinahan could lead to a resurgence in violence between Scotland's two feuding criminal families.
The Irishman, one of the world's most wanted men, appeared before a Dublin court on Sunday after being extradited from Dubai on charges of being involved in organised crime.
Kinahan Cartel's Scottish Connections
His family-run international cartel are alleged to have made almost £1billion over the years from the drugs trade and organised crime in general and are also said to have strong connections with the Glasgow-based Lyons crime family.
The Lyons in turn have been involved in a long-running murderous feud with another Glasgow family, the Daniels, dating back more than 25 years.
Graeme Pearson, former Director General of the Scottish Crime and Drugs Enforcement Agency, says Kinahan's arrest will have sent shockwaves through the criminal underworld in Scotland and abroad.
He added: "It creates turbulence, bordering on chaos. It depends on how the various parties on the outside respond to his arrival in Ireland. Because the business of organised crime particularly when it comes to guns and drugs must go on. Someone is going to profit from it."
Feud Violence Intensifies
Pearson fears further violence between the Lyons and Daniel families as they and other organised crime groups - both at home and abroad - compete to fill the vacuum created by Kinahan's arrest.
During their long-running feud there have been four murders, most recently a double fatal shooting of Eddie Lyons Jnr and key Lyons associate Ross Monaghan in a bar in Fuengirola in Spain in May last year.
He added: "When you have new arrangements coming into play you have the threat that somebody will step up and say I am going to be the top dog now and the only way you can do that is by using extreme violence.
"The profits are so huge and now there is an opportunity for change. There will be people sitting on the margins saying this is my time and that is when it becomes very dangerous.
"Nobody wants to have it as it was. They all want to have it better. With more profit. Somebody needs to run what was previously overseen by the Kinahans and it depends on who these people are and whether or not new partnerships can be delivered.
"It also depends whether or not Police Scotland, the National Crime Agency and others can keep a lid on the groups here in Scotland."
Pearson continued: "Deals need to be concluded, moneys need to be paid and drugs need to be delivered. The confidence to make sure that happens using the regime that existed previously - that is up in the air now."
Global Threat and Ongoing Vigilance
Daniel Kinahan and other family members are also wanted by the US Treasury Department, who have described their crime cartel as one of the most dangerous in the world. The Treasury has compared it to criminal organisations such as Italy's Camorra, Mexico's Los Zetas and Japan's Yakuza.
Pearson added: "If Police Scotland and the National Crime Agency can maintain the pressure they have over the last couple of years there is less opportunity for the violence to spread to Scotland. Now is the time for them to be aware and vigilant. I would imagine that they already have plans in place."
The former police chief says Kinahan may still be able to operate his criminal empire from jail, adding: "There will be a lot of communication from Kinahan to the outside about what he wants and what his allies want and whether or not they have the firepower to ensure that their wishes are maintained rather than a new power coming into place. The people who work for him will still be taking instructions. But they will also be watching their own back."
Kinahan was arrested in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in April. He appealed the extradition order over the past few months but his attempts were unsuccessful.
Lyons-Kinahan Alliance
The Lyons' connections with the Kinahans date back more than a decade and are believed to have been forged first in Marbella in the Costa del Sol and then Dubai in the UAE. The head of the Lyons crime family, Steven Lyons, is said to have made that connection after moving overseas following an attempt on his life in Glasgow in 2006.
That relationship is believed to have given the Lyons the upper hand in their long-running turf war with the Daniels. In exchange, the Kinahans were said to have secured a lucrative drugs network in Scotland.
Steven Lyons is currently in a Spanish prison awaiting trial on money laundering charges, having been deported from Bali then extradited from Holland earlier this year.
An underworld insider said: "Some people believe that the arrest of Kinahan will now give the Daniels the upper hand in their feud with the Lyons, leading in turn to more violence. It is also possible that others whose names are less well known are waiting in the wings to take over in Scotland and elsewhere. One thing is certain: a vacuum has been created in the criminal underworld and it will be interesting to see who fills it."
