Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, declared on Monday that the country is engaged in a "full-scale war" after the United States expanded its aerial campaign and Iran retaliated against Washington's Gulf allies. Diplomatic sources indicate that de-escalation talks are ongoing despite the intensified hostilities.
US Strikes Target Key Iranian Sites
Iranian media reported strikes around Tabriz, believed to house underground missile bases, and Bushehr, the site of Iran's only operational civilian nuclear power plant. The US military stated it had hit "military command centers, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and communications networks."
In response, Iran launched attacks against Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, and Kuwait, as well as striking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the strait carried about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies. The Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen also announced a blockade of Saudi ports.
Escalation Despite Recent Ceasefire Efforts
The tit-for-tat attacks threaten to plunge the region back into total war, despite an interim peace deal agreed last month. The memorandum of understanding (MoU), which aimed to halt attacks and reopen the strait, is more than halfway through a 60-day implementation period designed to allow diplomacy to take effect. Shipping through the strait has slowed dramatically due to the fighting, and oil prices have surged past $90 a barrel, the highest in a month, exacerbating the global energy crisis.
The Houthi blockade of Saudi ports, announced Monday, could further strain global energy markets. Saudi Arabia relies on the Red Sea route to export millions of barrels of oil, bypassing Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis said the blockade was in response to what they called Riyadh's targeting of Sana'a airport last week, which was bombed by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. They vowed to answer "a blockade with a blockade."
Diplomatic Channels Remain Open
Despite the escalation, there are signs that talks could still prevent further conflict. An Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to find ways to revive the MoU. This follows Iran's statement that diplomacy with the US is ongoing, though details were not provided.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said at a press conference in Tehran: "We have been informed by mediators, we have received messages – without going into details – but the main point is that the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas have been conveyed to us by certain mediators."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US remains open to negotiations with Iran, but stressed that "it has to be real." He added: "We're going to continue to respond. If the door opens to diplomacy – if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations – that'll be a very positive development."
Casualties and Continued Fighting
The US military reported that a service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian attack drone. This was the third US death in recent days, following two service members killed in an Iranian attack on a Jordanian airbase on Friday, with a third missing in action. Since the war began, 17 US service members have been killed. Iran's health ministry said on Friday that 50 people had been killed and more than 500 wounded in the current round of fighting.
President Donald Trump, returning to Washington after the World Cup final, said: "We hit them very hard again tonight," adding that the strikes were carried out "in honour of the, probably three, it's probably three great patriots."
Maritime Incidents and Regional Threats
Early Monday, a ship caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Oman, in the southern corridor the US military has encouraged ships to use to avoid Iranian control. The crew safely abandoned the vessel, which was later recovered by a tug boat, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit through the southern route, though there was no independent confirmation.
The IRGC also claimed to have launched a "surprise attack" on an enemy command centre in the al-Tanf region of Syria, as reported by state news agency IRNA. After Iran targeted sites in Jordan on Sunday, Israel warned of the danger of strikes spilling across its borders. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday: "If Iran fires missiles at Israel, we will attack them with full force." The US is expected to send dozens of additional refuelling planes to Israel as part of a reinforcement of its force posture in the region, a US official told Reuters.
US Strategy and Energy Security
Trump has threatened to target Iran's power stations and bridges to compel Tehran to loosen its hold on the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the administration's strategy but noted that the mission had shifted towards ensuring oil shipments could move through the strait. "We did a pause to try to get an agreement with the Iranian people to allow oil to flow without them attacking it. They've proven unwilling to do that, and we've pivoted. Now, what we're doing is assuring that that oil and gas and other products can flow through the strait of Hormuz with or without Iranian cooperation," Wright said on Sunday.
