Sex offenders could be released into the community rather than being held in custody as England and Wales’ criminal justice system buckles under mounting pressure. Police sources have warned that more charged offenders could be granted bail instead of being remanded in prison, with forces already struggling to manage the consequences of overcrowded jails and an overloaded court system.
Early-release scheme adds to strain
The warning comes as the Government prepares to begin its latest early-release scheme next Thursday, designed to ease pressure on prisons where available space is running dangerously low. Senior officers fear the knock-on effects could stretch policing and probation services even further, with offenders who might previously have been held behind bars instead being managed in the community.
One senior police source said forces were “bracing” for more cases in which offenders who should be remanded were released on bail, potentially causing further distress for victims. The source said: “Some forces are better resourced to deal with this than others. It is going to be a nationwide issue.”
Case highlights concerns
The concerns have been highlighted by the case of Zafer Dogan, who admitted taking photographs of children and women and using artificial intelligence to sexualise them. Despite police and prosecutors arguing that he should remain in custody, Dogan was bailed to his flat, which overlooked a children’s playground and was also the location from which some of his offences had been committed.
One victim was forced to move home after he was released. Dogan was eventually sentenced to two years in jail on Thursday. The case prompted Metropolitan Police commissioner Mark Rowley to criticise the operation of the justice system, amid wider concerns about how suspects are being dealt with, while prisons are under severe strain.
A senior Met source said there was concern that courts were becoming increasingly reluctant to remand suspects in custody where there was an expectation they might not receive a prison sentence if convicted. The senior police source warned: “Probation is crumbling, policing is having to pick up extra offender management work which it has not had to do before. Something has got to give.”
Cost and impact warnings
The Guardian, which reported the police concerns, said the National Police Chiefs’ Council estimates the early-release programme could cost policing £480million and be associated with a rise in crime of up to 6%. For the Metropolitan Police alone, the additional bill could reach around £100million.
Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, the NPCC’s lead for criminal justice reform, said police recognised the system was under “severe stress”, while warning that public confidence must not be lost. London victims’ commissioner Andrea Simon also raised concerns over the prospect of more offenders entering the community, saying pressure to reduce the remand population “cannot come at the expense of victims’ safety”.
The Government said the protection of victims, witnesses and the public must be considered whenever bail decisions are made, but stressed that final decisions rest with the independent judiciary.
