Heathrow's chief executive has set a December deadline for government approval of the third runway, warning that investors could pull out of the £33 billion scheme without final reassurance. The decision now falls to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has repeatedly declined to back the project.
December Deadline and Investor Pressure
Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow's chief executive, said a decision must be made "by December," warning that investors — including the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore and China — would withdraw support if they did not receive final reassurance. The scheme is part of a wider investment in the airport currently estimated at £49bn.
The expansion saga has been ongoing for two decades, dating back to 2006 when the Department for Transport published its report on Heathrow's growth and proposed adding runways. Prime ministers have changed, ownership has shifted, and the cost has continued to rise, with no realistic expectation that the current figure would be final if approval were granted.
Economic Significance and Capacity Constraints
Heathrow handled 84.5 million passengers last year and operates at full capacity, forcing airlines seeking additional flights to be refused. The airport has ceded its status as Europe's busiest to Istanbul, while competitors including Paris's Charles de Gaulle, Amsterdam's Schiphol and Frankfurt Main continue to take business.
Even if approval comes in the coming weeks, the earliest the new runway would come on stream is 2039. Heathrow accounts for £13.5bn of the UK's GDP, handles £300bn worth of trade a year, and supports 105,000 to 120,000 jobs locally. The new runway would create an extra 33,000 jobs. The cargo terminal handles 1.59 million tonnes a year, equating to 75 per cent of goods passing through Britain's airports.
Political Divisions and the Burnham Position
Two former Labour prime ministers supported the third runway: Tony Blair backed it in 2006, and Sir Keir Starmer, along with his chancellor Rachel Reeves, revived it in 2024. Now the decision falls to Burnham, who as mayor of Greater Manchester argued for regional airport expansion instead. At the Labour conference, Burnham was asked five times to support the third runway and refused each time, insisting it was "principally a matter for Londoners."
Keir Mather, the aviation minister, told the Commons Transport Select Committee that Burnham was "speaking to the fact that this is a decision of enormous consequences for London." Westminster insiders suggest Burnham is privately supportive but anxious to avoid charges of prioritising a London-centric venture over the North. His chancellor, John Healey, is supportive but less vocal than Reeves, saying, "The case for a third runway at Heathrow has always been a case for growth."
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband and London Mayor Sadiq Khan oppose the expansion on environmental grounds. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith favour it, while mayoral hopeful Sir James Cleverly has declared himself "very sceptical" and stressed the needs of Londoners, particularly those in west London.
Business Support and Alternative Plans
Business and unions are united in backing the third runway, believing it will drive prosperity and employment. Opposing them are west London residents under the flight path and environmental campaigners.
Burnham has said he is waiting for two independent studies: the Department for Transport's Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement, due this month, and the report of MPs on the select committee, also set for November. Hotel tycoon Surinder Arora is promoting a cheaper alternative, £8bn less, that would not require relocating part of the M25, and has found support among motoring groups and those living near the motorway.
