New analysis reveals that fare evasion on the Tube and Elizabeth line costs Transport for London (TfL) approximately £165 million annually, nearly matching the £168 million projected from March's fare increases across bus, Underground and overground networks.
Think tank highlights fare evasion costs
The Centre for Government Reform calculated that the total cost of fare evasion almost exactly offsets the revenue expected from the price rises. Ameer Kotecha, the think tank's chief executive, said: “Londoners were told the March fare rise was necessary to improve the network. What they weren’t told is that fare evasion is costing TfL almost exactly the same amount the rise was expected to generate across the entire network.” He added: “Before asking Londoners to dig deeper into their pockets, TfL needs to get serious about enforcement. This is not a funding problem, but sheer incompetence.”
Declining prosecutions and rising costs
A separate report by the Conservatives found that prosecutions for fare dodging have fallen from around 29,000 before the pandemic to roughly 14,000 this year. Freedom of Information data shows fare evasion cost TfL around £190 million in 2022-23, up from £116 million in 2018-19. It is estimated that 3.5% of the 3.6 billion annual passenger journeys across the TfL network go unpaid — the equivalent of 126 million free journeys per year, or 2.4 million per week.
The Centre for Government Reform's figures show the Tube ticket evasion rate for the first three quarters of 2025-26 stood at 5.03%, costing £141 million, while the Elizabeth line evasion rate in 2024-25 was 3.43%, costing £24 million.
Political response
Robert Jenrick, Reform UK’s economics spokesman, said: “It’s a slap in the face for the law-abiding majority that their fares are going up to pay for fare dodgers.” He added: “This problem will keep getting worse until fare dodgers know they’ll be fined and prosecuted. Actions must have consequences.”
TfL defends enforcement efforts
A TfL spokesman said: “By focusing our enforcement teams on locations with a high prevalence of people pushing through gates and using the latest technology to target the most prolific fare evaders across the network, the pan-TfL fare evasion rate has dropped to 3.5%, down from 3.9% in 2022/23.” The spokesman noted that TfL has more than 500 uniformed officers deployed across the network and that in the last financial year they issued over 69,000 penalty fares and reported over 21,000 individuals for possible prosecution. “We are committed to reducing the current rate of fare evasion to 1.5% by 2030/31 financial year and the strategy we now have in place will help us ensure more persistent evaders face justice,” the spokesman added.
