British holidaymakers face potential flight cancellations this summer as analysts warn that Europe's jet fuel reserves could drop to a critical 23-day supply by June. The warning from Goldman Sachs highlights that the International Energy Agency's (IEA) storage threshold of 23 days may be breached, with reserves potentially falling to 20 days by July and 15 days by August.
Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports that around 120 of the 22,613 UK departures scheduled for May have been cancelled, representing 0.53 percent of flights. An additional 36 outbound flights for June have also been axed, affecting nearly 8,000 seats. Globally, about 13,000 flights and two million passenger spaces have been cancelled for May, roughly 1.5 percent of all flights.
The crisis stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted 20 percent of global fuel supply. Fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of the US and Israel's war against Iran. While many airlines have hedged fuel supplies, they still require delivery. The government has allowed airlines to consolidate flights, redistributing passengers to reduce fuel usage.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander assured that most summer plans should not be affected, stating: "The last thing I want is for people to turn up at a departure gate and have last minute cancellations." However, passengers may be moved to different flights with at least 14 days' notice to avoid compensation, as per UK rules. Which? Travel editor Rory Boland stressed the importance of maintaining this rule.
