Shipping Traffic Remains Minimal in Strait of Hormuz Following Ceasefire
Commercial shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz continues to be severely restricted despite the announcement of a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Vessel-tracking data reveals almost no improvement in transit activity, with analysts highlighting that Tehran's stringent toll system for passage remains fully operational and unchanged.
Minimal Vessel Movement and Ongoing Restrictions
According to Lloyd's List, just three vessels have been tracked transiting the strait since the ceasefire was declared early Wednesday. All of these ships have current or historical links to Iran. An additional three vessels were positioned to cross or move towards the Iran-approved detour route around Larak Island.
Jashan Prema, a crude analyst at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, noted that the last confirmed oil shipment crossed on 5 April, totalling approximately 5.6 million barrels. The majority of this cargo was of Iranian origin, with around one million barrels consisting of Iraq's Basrah Heavy crude.
"Following the ceasefire announcement, no new oil transits have yet been confirmed," Prema told The Independent. He added that he anticipated some activity in the coming days as the situation potentially stabilises. Notably, no liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments have transited the strait since the conflict began.
Market Reactions and Geopolitical Tensions
Brent crude oil prices climbed back above $96 per barrel on Thursday as doubts emerged regarding the ceasefire's durability. Israel has continued strikes in Lebanon, while Iran has accused Israel of violating the truce terms. Global equity markets experienced declines, with South Korea's index slipping 0.4 per cent, and Japan's Nikkei alongside US futures all suffering drops.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, commented: "Doubt about the durability of the Iran ceasefire is filtering in, fraying nerves once again. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed, with oil tanker traffic suspended once again after Israel's renegade action."
She warned that even if shipments were to resume, tankers would encounter mined waters and a heightened military presence, which would keep insurance premiums and freight costs elevated. "Significant damage to key energy infrastructure across the Gulf is set to keep prices elevated until repairs can be completed, which for some facilities could take years," she added.
Continued Threats and Unchanged Iranian Policies
Despite the ceasefire announcement, threats from both sides have persisted. US President Donald Trump issued a statement insisting that his surge of warships and troops would remain around Iran "until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with." He added, "If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps broadcast a radio warning on Wednesday, stating vessels would be "destroyed" if they attempted to transit without permission—language unchanged from before the ceasefire. Lloyd's List confirmed that Iran's approval regime for transit remains unaltered. The verification process, requiring shipowners to submit detailed documentation on ownership, finance, insurance, and trading history, is still conducted on a ship-by-ship basis.
Toll System and Legal Uncertainties
Several countries with direct diplomatic agreements with Tehran, including Iraq, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Vietnam, are not required to pay transit fees directly. However, any vessel without such an agreement faces toll demands. According to Lloyd's List, these fees are settled in either cryptocurrency or yuan.
Analysts previously indicated that ships have been asked to pay as much as $2 million for transit. The legal status of these tolls remains uncertain. A lawyer advising a Chinese operator with several vessels stranded in the Middle East told Lloyd's List that owners are scrambling to understand how these transit fees would be collected and who would ultimately bear the cost.
Stranded Vessels and Analysts' Cautious Outlook
More than 800 vessels have been stranded in the Gulf since late February. Traffic through the strait has averaged three to five transits per day over the past two weeks, according to Windward Maritime Intelligence. Transit has shifted into a dual-corridor system, with a northern IRGC-controlled route near Larak Island and a newer southern pathway along the Omani coastline that became operational in early April.
Analysts express scepticism about a quick recovery in shipping traffic. Isaac Levi, a senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated: "The situation remains highly volatile, and despite the ceasefire, shipowners are unlikely to rush back into the Gulf to load fossil fuels."
Andres Cala, analyst at energy intelligence provider Montel, added: "If the ceasefire holds, which is a big if, it would allow loaded ships waiting in the Gulf to move quickly to take advantage of the window. But if the ceasefire unravels, or if Iran retains any meaningful leverage over traffic through Hormuz, oil and gas markets will rapidly reprice risk, factoring in persistent Gulf supply uncertainty and structurally higher prices."
Diplomatic Efforts for Resolution
A delegation led by US Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Pakistan this weekend in an effort to consolidate the ceasefire and negotiate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic mission underscores the ongoing complexities and the critical importance of restoring safe passage through one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints for global energy supplies.
