Sir Keir Starmer's visit to China, aimed at revitalising diplomatic and trade relations, is unlikely to yield significant economic benefits, according to analysts. The trip, the first by a UK prime minister since Theresa May's in 2018, comes as China's overheated economy offers only marginal gains for British businesses.
Starmer, accompanied by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Business Secretary Peter Kyle, leads a delegation of British companies including Rolls-Royce. The focus is on joint trade and investment, though Downing Street has signalled that human rights and national security issues will also be raised. Starmer has said the trip is not about Donald Trump, who recently threatened Canada with tariffs if it deals with China.
Sam Goodman of the China Strategic Risks Institute said the bar for success is “very low”, predicting little more than memorandums of understanding on financial services and a possible greenfield investment in the car industry. Andrew Small of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that margins have diminished in China's economy, making substantial trade gains unlikely.
The UK's trade deficit with China has more than doubled from £17bn in 2018 to £42bn in the year to Q2 2025. China's global trade surplus hit a record $1 trillion in 2025 despite US tariffs. Small described the UK's view of China as an economic opportunity as “completely removed from reality”.
China's foreign investment policies are also shifting, with companies like Zeekr delisting from New York and Shein reportedly favouring a Hong Kong listing over London. Analysts question whether Chinese investments in the UK deliver jobs, and note that Xi Jinping's strengthened position may limit concessions.
