Ceasefire Brings Little Relief for Shipping in Strait of Hormuz
Shipping analysts have cautioned that a two-week conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran will not lead to a "mass exodus" of vessels through the critical Strait of Hormuz. An estimated 2,000 ships, including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, cargo ships, and six tourist cruise liners, along with 20,000 seafarers, have been trapped in the Gulf since the outbreak of war in late February, according to United Nations reports.
Iran Maintains Control Over Maritime Passage
Despite the ceasefire agreement, which includes a temporary reopening of the strait, Iran has asserted its authority by requiring ships to seek permission for transit. Tehran announced on Wednesday that it would offer safe passage in coordination with its armed forces, but its coastguards warned that any vessel attempting to pass without authorisation would be "targeted and destroyed." The Iranian news agency Fars later reported that tankers were stopped due to Israel's attacks on Lebanon, which it deemed a ceasefire breach.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyd's List Intelligence, emphasised that the situation remains unchanged. "The initial ceasefire agreement doesn't change the situation in the sense that Iran is still in control," he said. "It still requires ships to essentially seek permission, and that's the key. That means that nothing has changed – no permission, no transit."
Limited Movement and Safety Concerns
In recent weeks, only a small number of ships have passed through the strait, which narrows to just 21 miles at its tightest point. This represents a tiny fraction of the prewar daily average of about 140 crossings. Meade noted that while some captains have been instructed to conduct safety checks in preparation for possible departure, most vessels are unlikely to move until safety is assured.
"We probably need to temper expectations of there being a mass exodus immediately," Meade explained. "Until shipowners have got some sort of detail in terms of what's required of them [to exit the strait] they are basically going to be waiting to see what happens. At the moment, we're seeing nothing to indicate that what was in place yesterday has changed."
Iran's Ceasefire Plan and Financial Implications
Under Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that safe passage would be allowed under Iranian military management. This continues Tehran's previous traffic control system, which granted passage only to "non-hostile vessels"—those not linked to the US or Israel. Reports indicate that the plan also permits Iran and Oman to charge fees of up to $2 million (£1.5 million) per ship for transit.
Since the war began, most vessels have remained anchored in the Gulf to ensure safety, following attacks on over 20 ships in the region and several crew fatalities. Ships that have moved have followed a new maritime route through Iranian territorial waters, between Larak island and the mainland, allowing for monitoring and approval. Analysts warn this route could further constrain traffic in the congested waterway.
Industry and Union Responses
Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers' Federation, highlighted ongoing concerns. "It is really good news, but we still want some forms of guarantee [of safety]," he said. "We will want to see the details of the exit, who is going first, what types of vessels – you need to test the confidence."
Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization, welcomed the ceasefire and called for a safe evacuation of seafarers. "I am already working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz. The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of navigation," he stated.
Long-Term Impact on Shipping Operations
Nicolas Tirogalas, president and chief investment officer at Tufton Investment Management, noted that none of its 35 ships were in the Gulf when the conflict started, and they have been instructed to avoid the area. "At the time, we instructed all of our crews to divert from the area and not to approach the area until further notice. That stands now and won't change because of this two-week ceasefire," he said.
Tirogalas added that it could take considerable time for shipowners to return to dangerous regions, citing that most container shipping companies had not resumed Red Sea operations by early 2026 after similar conflicts. Few analysts believe traffic will return to normal daily averages during the ceasefire, underscoring the prolonged disruption to global shipping lanes.
