The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with only three vessels passing the waterway in a 24-hour period, according to shipping data. The Strait, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the war began on February 28, is considered the world's most important oil chokepoint.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the disruption as the largest on record, surpassing the oil shocks of the 1970s and the loss of Russian pipeline gas after the invasion of Ukraine combined. While a brief opening of the Strait allowed more than a dozen tankers to pass on Friday, a ceasefire remains uncertain as Iran vows retaliation for the U.S. seizure of one of its vessels.
Several alternative routes exist or are under consideration to bypass the Strait. Saudi Arabia's 1,200-km East-West pipeline can transport up to seven million barrels per day (bpd) to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with effective exports estimated at about 4.5 million bpd. From Yanbu, shipments can reach Europe via the Suez Canal or Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb strait, though the latter route carries risks from Houthi militants in Yemen.
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) runs from Habshan to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, with a capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million bpd. However, oil loadings at Fujairah have been affected by drone attacks since the conflict began. Iraq's northern export route from Kirkuk to Turkey's Ceyhan port restarted in September after a two-and-a-half-year shutdown, pumping 170,000 bpd with plans to reach 250,000 bpd.
Iran may utilise the Jask terminal, fed by the one million bpd Goreh-Jask pipeline, though construction is not fully complete. Iraq is considering a pipeline from Basra to Oman's Duqm port, but the project remains at an early conceptual stage. Other proposals include a pipeline to Jordan's Aqaba port and a canal through the Hajar Mountains, both facing significant cost and security challenges.
