Two million airline seats have been cut from May's schedules as carriers redraw operations due to soaring jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows about 13,000 fewer flights will operate globally this month, representing less than 2% of capacity. While London Heathrow has seen only 111 net flights removed, fears persist that long-term supply disruptions could lead to further summer cancellations.
Istanbul and Munich have recorded the biggest flight reductions, with Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa making significant cuts. Lufthansa's CityLine subsidiary has axed 20,000 short-haul flights. The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the US-Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Most major short-haul UK airlines are well hedged on fuel costs, with EasyJet and Wizz Air pledging to operate full summer schedules despite pressure on unhedged portions. The industry reports no current shortages, but international agencies warn Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the war continues.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted the UK is most exposed as Europe's largest net jet fuel importer, with low inventories and reduced domestic refining capacity. Stocks could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.
The UK government has announced flexibility measures to avoid late summer disruption, including relaxing slot rules to allow airlines to consolidate flights on popular routes without losing rights. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said there are no immediate supply issues but the government is preparing to give families certainty and avoid disruption at departure gates.
