Retailers and brands must build more adaptable organisations, faster decision-making processes, and more resilient business models as several global forces – from artificial intelligence to climate volatility – make the future harder to predict, according to new research from IGD.
IGD's latest global trends research argues that retailers and brands can no longer assume tomorrow's market will behave like yesterday, as past success becomes an increasingly unreliable guide to future success.
Seven converging trends
IGD identifies seven converging global trends reshaping how businesses operate and compete: climate volatility across sourcing, distribution and store operations; AI reshaping the route to purchase; retail media reinventing retail economics; shifting channel dynamics with the rapid reinvention of the convenience channel; grocery's growing role in health outcomes; changing consumer demographics; and sustainability, particularly food waste.
Bryan Roberts, Retail Futures senior partner at IGD, said: "Until recently, businesses could rely on experience and past performance to plan for the future. Now, multiple major trends are reshaping consumer behaviour, business models, and competitive advantage simultaneously."
"In short, many of the assumptions that have guided decision-making for decades are becoming less dependable, and businesses must build the capabilities and organisational agility needed to respond as change happens," he added.
AI's impact on the route to purchase
Among the trends highlighted by IGD, Roberts believes AI provides a clear example of how quickly established thinking can change. "Traditionally, the route to purchase has been a competition for people's attention," he said.
"Now, generative AI has introduced a new decision-making layer between shoppers and products as consumers increasingly use it to find, evaluate and source items. This means winning attention depends on appealing to algorithms as well as people. Agentic AI will deepen the shift by independently researching, comparing and purchasing products on consumers' behalf," Roberts explained.
"This development alone has huge implications, yet it's just one example of a much bigger pattern," he noted.
Building capabilities for multiple possibilities
According to IGD, the combined impact of the seven trends is creating a business environment that is more dynamic, more interconnected, and less predictable than in previous decades. In response, IGD believes organisations should focus less on trying to predict a single future and more on building the capabilities needed to respond to multiple possibilities.
Roberts added: "The winners over the next decade won't necessarily be the businesses with the best forecasts. They'll be the businesses that can make the right decisions quickly and adapt fastest when conditions change."
"That's why retailers and brands need to build a new playbook. Not because the fundamentals no longer matter, but because the operating conditions that underpin them are changing faster and less predictably than ever before," he said.
The full report, 'Global retail trends 2027', explores the seven trends IGD expects to have the greatest impact on retailers and brands through 2027 and beyond. A free summary is available on the IGD website.
