Grocery price inflation edged higher in October, reaching 2.6% year on year, up from 2.5% the previous month, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator. The rise came as sales of essential goods surged following the launch of the Government's Be Ready campaign.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: "While prices are rising at a slower rate than at the beginning of the year, the direction of travel has changed." He noted that household budgets have already been squeezed after the latest increase to the energy price cap arrived with cold weather in October, adding that shoppers will be keeping a close eye on prices at the tills this winter.
Be Ready campaign drives essential sales
Sales of essential supplies rose from October 22 as consumers responded to the Be Ready public awareness campaign, which urged households to prepare for up to three days of disruption to essential services. In the 10 days following the campaign's launch, sales of hand sanitiser jumped by 83% compared with the same period last year, while bottled water sales climbed 67% and tinned and jarred goods rose 37%.
The number of shoppers buying tinned meat each day after the campaign launched increased by 43%, equivalent to an additional 400,000 shoppers per day. The typical quantity purchased remained at around 500g, indicating households are steadily building up their cupboard supplies.
McKevitt added: "Shoppers clearly took notice of the Be Ready campaign, but this wasn't panic buying, with less than a third of households buying bottled water in October. Growth came from more people adding the recommended items on the Government's checklist to their weekly shop, not from shoppers piling their trolleys high, which is very much in line with what the Government wanted households to do."
Seasonal and retailer performance
Pumpkin sales rose by 10% year on year as households prepared for Halloween, while tubs of sugar confectionery saw a 28% uplift compared with the previous year.
Online-only grocer Ocado recorded sales growth of 12.3% over the 12 weeks to 1 November, achieving a record market share of 2.3%. Marks & Spencer, which part owns the Ocado retail business, separately posted a 14.6% rise in grocery sales through its stores over the same period.
Lidl saw spending through its tills climb by 6.6%, resulting in a market share gain of 0.4 percentage points — the largest of any retailer — bringing its total share to 8.6% of all sales. Waitrose was the third retailer to grow its share year on year, edging up to 4.5% from 4.4% on the back of a 2.2% rise in sales.
Market share movements
Morrisons posted a 2% increase in sales, marginally ahead of the wider market, securing a market share of 8.3%. Tesco and Sainsbury's commanded 27.8% and 15.5% respectively. Newly appointed Asda chief executive David Potts began his tenure with a market share of 11.3%, with more than half of all households having shopped in its stores or online over the past three months.
Aldi, Britain's fourth largest grocer, recorded a sales increase of 0.4%, pushing its market share to 10.4%, while Co-op posted a 0.7% year-on-year sales rise, securing a 5.3% share of the market.
