Proposed changes to the UK government's Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM) could impose costs of up to £2,812 per product on supermarkets such as Morrisons, Aldi, Sainsbury’s, and Asda, according to a new study. These costs are expected to be passed on to consumers, potentially increasing food prices further.
What is the Nutrient Profiling Model?
The NPM is a points-based scoring system used by the government and health organisations to classify foods and drinks as 'healthier' or 'less healthy' based on nutritional composition. It informs public health regulations, including advertising restrictions enforced by Ofcom under the 'NPM 2004 to 2005' rules, which limit the advertising of products high in saturated fat, salt, or sugar to children.
In 2018, the Department of Health and Social Care commissioned Public Health England to review the NPM to align it with current UK dietary recommendations. The updated version, 'NPM 2018', was published in January 2026 but is not yet in use.
Cost Implications for Manufacturers
According to Larder, Oxford Economics estimates that the proposed changes could cost manufacturers an average of £2,812 per product to implement—far exceeding the government's own assessment of £53 per product. This cost difference covers reformulating recipes, updating packaging, changing internal systems, and reassessing entire product ranges.
Impact on Supermarkets and Consumers
The study suggests that up to 40% more products could fall under restrictions, including high-fibre cereals, fruit yoghurts, and lower-sugar and lower-salt alternatives. With food inflation expected to reach up to 10% by the end of the year, experts warn that additional costs could feed through to prices at the till.
Industry Concerns
Kate Halliwell, Chief Scientific Officer at the Food and Drink Federation, expressed concerns about unintended consequences: “There are early signs that existing rules are already influencing what people buy. Introducing further changes now could add pressure on businesses and reduce access to products that support healthier diets.”
