Grocery price inflation in the UK slowed to 3% in June, down from 3.1% in May and 3.8% in April, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator. The unexpected easing has calmed fears that the Middle East conflict would drive up supermarket prices.
World Cup and Heatwave Boost Promotions
The World Cup prompted supermarkets to run the highest level of promotions on food and drink in five years, particularly on beer, cider, snacks, crisps, and chilled pizza. Nearly a third of all grocery spending is now on promotion, according to Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel.
“There’s something very British about the way a heatwave changes the weekly shop, and shoppers didn’t need much encouragement to fire up the grill and turn to al fresco dining this time around,” McKevitt said. The UK experienced its hottest May day on record, driving suncare sales up 128%, fresh beef burger sales up 40%, and sales of fresh prepared salads and chilled dips up 13%. Sales of no- and low-alcohol drinks rose 23%, outpacing the 6% growth in the wider beer and cider category.
Barbecue Spending Nearly Doubles
Worldpanel data shows that spending per person on food nearly doubles when households barbecue, reaching almost £5 per head compared with just over £2.50 for meals prepared indoors. McKevitt noted that barbecue staples and healthier options are common summer trends, expected to continue through June and July with warm weather forecast.
Retailer Performance Varies
Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer, with sales up 13.5% over the 12 weeks to June 14 compared with the same period last year. Co-op returned to growth, increasing its market share from 5.2% to 5.3% as sales grew 2.7%, recovering from a cyberattack that affected its 2025 figures. Tesco, the UK’s largest grocer, holds a 28% market share with sales up 1.2%. Asda’s sales fell 3.6%, giving it 12.1% of the market.
McKevitt added, “Combined with strong online growth, it points to shoppers who know what they want and are increasingly confident about where and how to find the best deal. In short, retailers are having to compete hard for that summer shop.”
