Manchester United are trying to be the smartest club in the Premier League by relying on data for recruitment and maintaining discipline in spending over the previous two summer transfer windows. However, the acid test is coming as they aim to close the gap on Manchester City and Arsenal while holding off rivals Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.
For years, the smartest clubs in the Premier League have been those pushing boundaries in mid-table, such as Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford, which have found an edge in recruitment. However, this approach generally has a ceiling, as hidden gems are soon picked off by bigger clubs.
Data-driven approach at Old Trafford
At Old Trafford, Manchester United are trying a different approach. They have winced at some fees paid this summer and are trusting algorithms to help them compete. So far, they have spent £85million on Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans, with another midfielder on the radar. There is a 'long list' of options and no great rush to seal a deal or commit to a top target.
Part of the faith is the money invested in data and AI departments at United, transformed under Ineos rule and through the leadership of Michael Sansoni, United's first director of data and AI. Those models played a part in last summer's signings, widely viewed as United's best transfer window in many years.
Discipline and long-term planning
Chief executive Omar Berrada spoke about the importance of Sansoni and the desire to keep spending in check. "We have to be really disciplined," said Berrada. "We have a plan. We know what we can invest and we have to stick to that. In some cases we may decide to make an investment knowing that it's the right thing for not just the next two, three years, but for the next 10 years."
"But clearly we need to stay very focused on what we're trying to achieve and it's very important that you don't let the market or the agents dictate what we should be doing."
"I think when I look at the football leadership team, plus the investment that we've made in Michael Sansoni's team on the data side, we're in a pretty good shape and I think the quality of the decisions will continue to improve as the team settles and we continue investing in those areas."
The challenge of finding an edge at the top
United have seen the praise clubs like Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton receive and want a piece of it. Belatedly, they have seen the value of data in football. However, there is a common view that the higher up the league you get, the harder it is to find an edge. Those three clubs can sign young players from abroad and give them time to settle, but United cannot afford a slow start from too many signings.
United are likely to push ahead with a third midfield signing this summer and have a range of options. As things stand, they haven't alighted on a leading target, although they are likely to pass on a bidding war for Alex Scott. Things could fall into their lap if Real Madrid sell Aurelien Tchouameni, but that feels unlikely.
The answer will come on the pitch next season.
