Diesel prices in the UK have reached record levels, with emergency import stockpiles sufficient for only around 40 days, according to new research from Sky News. The analysis, based on multiple data sources, suggests that as of July 2026, the UK's emergency diesel import stockpile is limited, raising concerns about supply security.
US export ban speculation adds pressure
Government statistics from last year show that approximately a third of all diesel imported into the UK comes from the US. Speculation that US President Donald Trump may impose a total ban on diesel exports has prompted many drivers to consider filling up their tanks sooner rather than later.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM, cautioned that such a ban would have an "immediate effect" on the UK, with road haulage, agriculture, construction and distribution sectors feeling the greatest impact.
Expert explains the causes
Ellen Fraser, Energy and Resources Associate Partner at consultancy Baringer, shared her insights on BBC Radio 4's Moneybox programme. She told listeners: "There are so many things going on here. So we've got the Strait of Hormuz which is taking out both crude oil but also refinery capacity. We've got what's going on in Russia and that's taken out refinery capacity particularly in the diesel markets which is behind some of the spike here."
"But for diesel and some of the products we're also going into the winter months so people are stocking up before we go into winter. And in agriculture for example we've got all the farmers out in the fields harvesting. That's just putting general pressure on refined products and a bit of a consumption peak and that's causing the prices to nudge up a little bit as well."
Record prices and outlook
Presenter Paul Lewis queried: "Filling up your car the average price of unleaded £1.74 a litre, diesel this morning I saw at over £2 breaking possibly the record. The RAC says prices likely to rise further. Do you agree?" Ms Fraser responded: "I think that is likely based on the really tight demand-side market - so yes."
Addressing those dependent on heating fuel oil across the UK, Mr Lewis asked if households should buy supplies immediately: "Been a tough time for people using heating oil this year and now of course they face winter buying oil as the price heads up. Is it a good idea to wait?"
Ms Fraser answered: "It's always really hard to give advice because the energy markets are incredibly tight at the moment and thast means that they're really volatile, so you get bounces up and you get bounces down. But when we're looking at the oil markets currently the forward curves don't suggest that they're going to come off much over the winter period and we're expecting those prices to stay high until at least April and May which is obviously far too late to fill the tanks."
Strait of Hormuz attacks escalate
This follows reports indicating that Iran's IRGC has significantly ramped up its attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, deploying anti-ship cruise missiles and drones while fast-attack boats target tankers with guided rockets, machine guns and small arms. According to the Hormuz Letter, at least three vessels have been hit and a fourth has reversed course, with another source suggesting as many as six were struck last night.
