A government-commissioned review led by former Labour health secretary Alan Milburn has issued a stark warning that youth joblessness could escalate dramatically within the next five years, potentially creating a 'lost generation' of young people disconnected from the workforce and education.
Rising NEET Numbers
The interim report, due to be published on Thursday, projects that the proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (NEET) could climb from the current level of approximately one in eight to one in six by 2031. This translates to an estimated 1.25 million young people, up from 957,000 recorded between October and December 2025.
Mr. Milburn is expected to highlight that six in ten NEETs have never held a job, compared with around four in ten two decades ago. He will argue that detachment from the labour market is no longer temporary but is becoming permanent for many, placing the country at risk of a 'lost generation'.
Barriers to Employment
The review points to a 'thinning' of the first rung of the career ladder, with entry-level jobs in sharp decline. Specifically, there are 1.6 million fewer low- and medium-skilled positions in the economy. Vacancies in hospitality have halved in the last four years alone, while traditional 'Saturday jobs' have long been in decline. Apprenticeship starts among young people have plummeted by 35% over the past decade.
Mr. Milburn will state: 'The first rung of the career ladder has thinned. For too many young people it is now simply out of reach. That places them in a hopeless Catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone.'
System Failure, Not Youth Failure
The report emphasises that the crisis is not the fault of young people but rather a systemic failure. Mr. Milburn is expected to say: 'This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market. Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits.'
He will call for urgent action, urging the government to make the issue a top priority. The review notes that 84% of NEETs surveyed expressed a desire for a job or training, challenging the narrative that young people are unwilling to work.
Spending Imbalance
The research reveals a significant imbalance in public spending: for every £1 spent on employment support for young people, approximately £25 is spent on benefits. This, the report argues, represents a fundamental misallocation of resources.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has previously described youth unemployment as a 'quiet crisis, a ticking timebomb'. He is reportedly planning to announce 300,000 extra work experience placements over the next three years. Mr. McFadden said: 'I commissioned this report because we cannot afford to lose a generation of young people, and I welcome Alan Milburn’s vital work which lays bare the scale of the challenge and the root causes of youth unemployment we now need to confront.'
Reactions
Stuart Machin, chief executive of Marks & Spencer, called the findings 'shocking but not surprising'. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said the report shows 'an entire generation is being let down', with executive director Harry Quilter-Pinner emphasising the need for cross-government action to ensure every young person can access good training and secure work.
David Hughes, chief executive of the Association of Colleges, stressed that colleges must be at the heart of the solution, with proper investment to expand technical education and apprenticeships. John Bird, founder of the Big Issue, warned that poverty is not just an outcome of the NEET crisis but its driving force.
Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately criticised the government's approach, accusing Labour of making it harder for young people to enter work through policies such as the jobs tax and capping apprenticeship funding.
The final report, with recommendations for fundamental reform, is expected later this year.
