ISO New England, the region's grid operator, has forecast a 9% increase in electricity demand over the next ten years, driven by the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles. The projection, released on May 1, marks a slowdown from last year's estimate of 11% growth, partly due to changes in federal climate and energy policies.
The forecast reverses a two-decade trend of declining electricity use, which was fuelled by energy efficiency improvements and behind-the-meter solar generation. Mary Cate Colapietro, an ISO New England spokesperson, said: 'We’ve had years of relatively flat demand, thanks to states investing in energy efficiency. But looking ahead, there is going to be a shift.'
Maine's state-level efficiency programmes remain unaffected by federal policy shifts, according to the Efficiency Maine Trust. Michael Stoddard, its executive director, noted that grid upgrades come at a cost and that careful planning is needed to build infrastructure 'to the right size at the right time.'
This year's forecast includes, for the first time, estimates from large users such as data centres and behind-the-meter battery storage. ISO New England also updated its assumptions on heat pump electricity consumption and factored in reduced demand from building weatherisation efforts.
Stoddard praised the more conservative projections for electric vehicle and heat pump numbers but argued that the grid operator's estimates of heat pump electricity use remain too high. He urged forecasters to 'start to take a harder look' at that aspect.
