A new report by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) reveals that British nationals accounted for only 734,000 of the 3.7 million additional payroll jobs created between 2014 and the end of last year. The analysis warns that Britons are being “written off” by the welfare system, with EU nationals holding 408,000 of the positions and non-EU nationals seeing an increase of about 2.5 million.
Regional declines and sector concentration
The CSJ warns that annual spending on working-age benefits has increased by £50 billion in real terms since 2019-20. The think tank argues that “successive governments have relied on low-skill migration to fill jobs”. It claims that between January 2020 and December 2025, the number of payroll jobs held by British nationals fell in nine of the UK’s 12 nations and regions, while those held by non-EU nationals increased in every one.
Researchers found Scotland had the largest fall in “British national” payroll jobs, with a drop of 53,000. This compares with falls of 32,000 in the West Midlands, 31,700 in the South-east, 29,400 in the East of England, and 26,500 in London. The CSJ says the growth since 2020 “has been concentrated in sectors such as social care, hospitality and retail”. Health and social work “accounted for 29% of the increase in non-EU nationals on payrolls”, followed by administrative and support services (16%), accommodation and food services (12%) and wholesale and retail (10%).
Economic impact and political reaction
The think tank alleges the way migration is treated in official economic forecasts “encourages governments to prioritise increases in the size of the economy over improvements in living standards”. It points to how total GDP went up by 26% in real terms between 2006 and 2025, but “GDP per person grew by only 10%”. Because Government decisions are based on forecasts for the following five years, the CSJ claims, positive effects such as an “immediate increase in workers and tax receipts” are picked up but not “longer-term costs that emerge as migrants become eligible for welfare and grow older”.
The report claims Britain has imported workers “to expand headline GDP while allowing millions of people already here to drift away from the labour market”. It states that “employers have gained unprecedented access to overseas labour while taxpayers have absorbed the growing cost of domestic worklessness”. The CSJ claims that about “6.7 million people across England, Wales and Scotland now receive at least one out-of-work benefit” – equivalent to around one in six working-age adults.
Political responses
Former Conservative work and pensions secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith said: “The report shows that this crisis extends beyond the benefit system. The truth is that successive governments have used welfare over decades to compensate parts of the country for economic failure rather than creating the conditions for prosperity. Compounding this, ministers have repeatedly pulled the easy lever of immigration rather than providing a better deal for left-behind communities.”
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said: “This report is a damning indictment of how Labour and Conservative governments have chosen an open-borders, low-wage economic model that writes off millions of our own people. Reform UK will end the welfare trap, halt mass immigration and get British workers back into jobs.” Shadow Cabinet Office minister Mike Wood said: “Labour have sent unemployment up and up with their tax raids on businesses and endless red tape. And their failure to secure our borders means more and more low-skilled migrants are arriving. This combination means people are fighting harder and harder to get jobs. And Labour are making it worse by failing to offer good opportunities for young people to build good careers, preferring instead to let them walk into a life on welfare.”
A government spokesperson said: “The vast majority of this country’s workforce is made up of UK nationals, and we have introduced a number of changes including a new skills-based migration system to put British workers first and welcome the high-skilled talent that our economy needs. We are also reforming the welfare system by creating almost a million work opportunities for young people through our Youth Guarantee, while investing £3.5 billion to help disabled people and those with long-term health conditions move closer to the labour market.”
