The San Francisco Bay Area is experiencing an AI frenzy that dwarfs the California gold rush, with top programmers receiving compensation packages worth hundreds of millions and young startup employees contemplating retirement before age 35. Yet beneath this boom lies anxiety that failure to win the AI sweepstakes could mean falling into the ranks of the permanent poor as AI automates white-collar work, especially coding jobs.
Silicon Valley's prevailing mood is pessimistic: either your startup succeeds within five to ten years, or you rely on universal basic income. Despite progressive values, elites seem oblivious that most people left behind by AI will not live in the US but in countries outside the AI supply chain, such as those in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe.
Countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have secured roles in AI through semiconductor manufacturing, while Europe has produced few success stories beyond ASML. Africa and Latin America lack basic prerequisites like electricity and face capital shortages, risking mass job displacement without the tax revenues to cushion the blow.
Some nations may benefit from AI's demand for minerals like copper, lithium, and cobalt, but resource wealth often proves a curse without strong institutions. India's vast outsourcing industry could be decimated as AI devours mid-level white-collar work, leaving it particularly vulnerable to the economic transformation.
