US tax refunds have increased by 10% to an average of $3,742, according to the latest IRS data, but experts warn that the benefits are skewed towards higher earners. The White House had projected refunds would jump by “$1,000 or more” under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which includes provisions such as no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security.
However, IRS data from March 27 shows the average refund is only $351 higher than through March 2025. The nonpartisan Center for American Progress found that fewer than half of taxpayers earning under $100,000 will see an increased refund, with an average rise of just $208. Those earning less than $20,000 will get only $13 more, while those in the $20,000-$50,000 bracket will receive $89 extra.
In contrast, nearly all taxpayers earning over $200,000 will see an average increase of more than $2,000. The Tax Foundation estimates the overall average refund will rise by $748 across all Americans, but the $1,000-plus boost will be reserved for the highest earners. Wealthy individuals often file extensions, pushing their larger refunds later in the year, which inflates the year-end average.
Historically, average refunds grow as the tax year progresses. In 2025, the average rose from $1,928 in early February to $3,167 by late December. The current average of $3,742 is consistent with this trend, but the distribution remains uneven.
