Two million airline seats have been removed from May schedules worldwide as carriers grapple with soaring jet fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict, according to aviation data firm Cirium. The cancellations amount to roughly 13,000 fewer flights globally, though they represent less than two percent of total capacity.
In the UK, the impact has been relatively modest so far, with only 111 flights net loss at London Heathrow. However, concerns are mounting over further summer disruption, as the war continues to disrupt fuel supplies. Istanbul and Munich have seen the largest drops, with Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa making significant cuts, including 20,000 short-haul flights by Lufthansa's CityLine subsidiary.
The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the US-Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Most major UK short-haul carriers, such as EasyJet and Wizz Air, are well hedged and have pledged to operate full summer schedules, though unhedged portions of their fuel bills face pressure.
The government has introduced contingency measures, including relaxing 'use-it-or-lose-it' slot rules, allowing airlines to cancel under-sold flights without losing future slots. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said there are no immediate supply issues but stressed the need to prepare for summer certainty.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that the UK is the most exposed European nation due to its status as the largest net jet fuel importer, with low inventories and reduced domestic refining capacity. They cautioned that stocks could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.
UK refineries have been urged to maximise jet fuel production, though ministers have resisted calls for tax cuts or easing environmental regulations. The industry maintains there are no current shortages, but international agencies predict potential supply issues if the conflict persists.
