Voters' opposition to the state of Donald Trump's economy is well established, despite his attempts to deflect, with 58% of average US voters saying the economy is getting worse, according to polling by Harris for the Guardian.
Partisan perceptions diverge sharply
The political polarization of the time has reduced and confused the influence of economic conditions on US elections. In September 2024, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Trump launched a trade war with his "liberation day" tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.
The economic data offers little explanation. Annual consumer price inflation fell from 2.4% to 2.3% between the two polls, while the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%. Democrats disagreed sharply: the share who thought the economy was worsening jumped from 28% to 73% from the last Harris poll of the Biden era to the first under Trump.
Rural and white voters turn sour
As the midterm elections loom, suggesting a stark Republican defeat, Trump and his allies hope this ideological lens can prevent an electoral bloodbath. Polling suggests the gambit is not working. The September reading of the consumer price index, which recorded a spike in annual inflation to 3.7%, had not yet been published when Harris performed its latest polling. Still, the pollster reported that 38% of Republicans believe the economy is worsening, up from 29% a year ago.
Rural Americans, loyal Republican allies for decades, are being battered by Trump's policies. They were hit by his trade war, largely barred from China's markets, and hammered by rising diesel and fertilizer prices, for which they can thank Trump's war in Iran. They have been hamstrung by raids against immigrants in their labor force and feel attacked by Trump's attempt to tame rising beef prices by lowering tariffs on imported meat. Sixty-four percent of rural Americans polled this month said the economy was getting worse, compared to 52% of city dwellers. White Americans are also turning sour: 61% believe the economy is getting worse, up from 48% in September 2024. The share of men who believe the economy is getting worse increased from 46% to 52% over those two years.
Partisanship weakens economic accountability
Bill Clinton famously won the presidency in 1992 campaigning on: "It's the economy, stupid." The state of the economy was critical in deciding elections for much of the 20th century, but the relationship has weakened as the electorate has split into rival camps. A recent study by political scientists from Stanford and New York University estimated the partisan gap in economic perceptions rose "from about 20 percentage-points at the beginning of the Bush II administration to a maximum of 73 percentage-points during the (first) Trump administration".
Partisanship also reduces policymakers' incentive to deliver broad economic prosperity, according to political scientists at Bucknell University and Texas A&M University. "If voters are relatively unwilling to cross party lines to reward good economic performance or punish economic decline, then elected officials can pursue policies that distribute economic benefits narrowly without affecting their chances of re-election," they wrote. "This might include aiming policy to deliver rewards to co-partisans, donors, or even to the office-holder himself or herself."
This would explain Trump's tactics, including scaring voters with culture war stuff and doing violence to groups his Maga base dislikes. It seems too late, though. Voters' opposition to his economic stewardship is well established, built up since the "liberation day" tariffs through countless destructive decisions over the last 21 months. His attempts to distract the base are unlikely to convince them that they are not miserable too.
