The state pension triple lock is expected to remain in place for the rest of this Parliament, but April 2030 has emerged as a key date for any possible replacement. Questions over the future of the guarantee have been raised amid calls for changes to help fund a new social care system.
Triple lock promised until 2030
Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to create a National Care Service, with reports suggesting the long-term ambition is for care to become free at the point of use. Such a huge change would need to be paid for, and reports suggest some Labour MPs want the Government to look at the growing cost of the state pension.
The triple lock guarantees that the state pension rises every year by whichever is highest out of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%. However, pensioners should not expect it to suddenly disappear next year.
The Government has promised to keep the triple lock for the duration of this Parliament, meaning any major change is unlikely before 2030. Official projections from the Government Actuary say the April 2030 state pension increase is expected to fall in the next Parliament.
Next increase expected in April 2027
That makes April 2030 a key date for any possible replacement, the i Paper reports, although no decision has been made to scrap the triple lock. For now, the triple lock is expected to deliver another increase next April.
Average earnings grew by 3.9% in the three months from May to July 2026, a figure which is currently expected to determine next April's increase. If that figure is used, the full new state pension would climb from £241.30 to around £250.70 a week from April 2027.
The full basic state pension would meanwhile increase from £184.90 to around £192.10 a week.
Cost of state pension continues to grow
But the cost of paying the state pension has continued to grow. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says state pension spending is expected to be around £154billion in 2026-27.
Several alternatives have been suggested if the triple lock is eventually replaced. One possibility would be linking increases only to average earnings, while another could see pensions rise in line with inflation.
A different option would combine the two, protecting pensioners when prices rise sharply while keeping the state pension linked to earnings over the longer term. However, exactly what would replace the triple lock, if anything, has not been decided. Any change would also affect people differently depending on future inflation and wage growth.
