New polling suggests Kemi Badenoch could revive Conservative support by promising major tax cuts for working people and action to create jobs, as the Tories gather for their annual conference in Birmingham.
A clear majority of the British public are certain how the Tories could boost living standards for working class people. Fifty-three percent of those polled want taxes cut “substantially” for working Britons as well as businesses in order to encourage work, investment and job creation – even if this means “significant cuts to Government spending elsewhere”. Just 17% wanted taxes and spending kept around present levels and only 15% supported increased spending on public services and welfare benefits.
Reform UK vulnerabilities exposed
The polling commissioned by Blue Collar Conservatism and conducted by Public First provides a pathway to recovery for the party which suffered a crushing defeat to Labour in 2024 after 14 years in power.
The Tories now face intense competition from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK but the polling shows where the insurgent party may be vulnerable. When asked what would make working class people less likely to vote for Reform, one in four cited “concern that Reform would put the NHS or other public services at risk”. The second most common reason why voters thought people might turn away from Reform is concern that the party lacked the competence to run the country (22%).
And when asked how Mrs Badenoch’s party can convince working class voters it has changed since losing power, the most popular action was “setting out a clear plan to cut taxes and government spending” (27%). This was ahead of admitting the mistakes of the past Government (24%) and “taking a tougher approach to welfare and getting people into work” (23%).
Immigration and living standards concerns
The public were also clear what changes in Britain have done the most harm to working class communities. When asked to select three developments which had hurt these areas, 35% blamed large-scale immigration; 34% cited difficulties in accessing NHS services; 28% picked the decline in manufacturing; and 27% named the decline in high streets.
The findings come as Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK all compete for support in former industrial areas, many of which voted for Brexit.
Former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey, a co-founder of Blue Collar Conservatism, said: “Andy Burnham likes to talk about ‘working-class aspiration’, but our findings show that this does not translate into support for big-state socialism. There is a clear appetite for lower taxes on working people and businesses, even when voters are explicitly told that this would mean significant reductions in government spending. What is particularly striking is that Conservative and Reform voters give almost identical answers on that fundamental economic choice.”
She added that concern about “immigration also comes through extremely strongly”, saying: “My reading is that credibility on immigration has become a price of admission for many of these voters, but beyond immigration there is substantial common ground around lower taxes, controlling welfare and making work pay. This is where the Conservatives must focus.”
Clark Vasey, fellow co-founder of Blue Collar Conservatism, said the results suggested “voters want tangible improvements in their living standards rather than abstract promises”. He said: “For Conservatives, the polling points to an opportunity to rebuild trust around immigration while offering a genuinely conservative economic programme based on work, lower taxes and improved living standards.”
Voter priorities and political reaction
Voters were asked to identify up to three challenges that had the biggest negative effects in working class communities. The high cost of utilities like energy and water topped the list (34%), ahead of the high price of groceries (32%). This was followed by high levels of immigration (27%) and the high cost of housing (26%).
Former Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Sir Mel Stride said: “This polling shows that people understand that getting taxes down is good for living standards and good for growing the economy. That’s why we have focused on how we would control public spending – especially the welfare bill – so that in Government we would deliver the serious tax cuts that hard working people want.”
Silvia Andreoletti of the Adam Smith Institute said: “To no one’s surprise, British people have a far better understanding of what the economy needs than Burnham’s government. Lowering income taxes and cutting benefits is crucial: it will encourage people to stay in work and boost Britain’s languishing productivity.” She said it would be “fiscally irresponsible to do otherwise” because the Government is borrowing more and more money to pay out massive benefits, leaving future generations to foot the bill.
John Longworth, chairman of the Independent Business Network, said: “The only thing that matters in the first instance is economic growth – everything else depends on that. Tax cuts are one of the fastest and most reliable ways to achieve this. Not only will it create prosperity but it will also put money in the hands of the people who know how to spend it best – not Government wasters. In the end it will also generate more tax for essential services and defence. It couldn’t be simpler.”
