Oil Crisis Wealth Transfer: Who Profits and How to Stop Them
Traders at the New York Stock Exchange on 9 March 2026 witnessed a market bracing for turmoil as the US-Israel war against the Islamic Republic of Iran escalates. The Strait of Hormuz, now a global flashpoint, has seen shipping nearly halt, sending crude oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel from $60 at the year's start. Gasoline prices are jumping, airlines are announcing hikes, and governments in oil-importing nations are scrambling with measures like shorter work weeks and price regulations. Yet, a critical discussion remains absent: who will get rich from this crisis, and how can we stop them?
The 2022 Template: A Blueprint for Profiteering
The 2022 oil and gas crisis, triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, offers a stark template. In a recent paper published in Energy Research & Social Science, we detailed how net income of publicly listed oil and gas companies reached $916 billion globally—more than triple the preceding years. The US was the largest beneficiary, with companies capturing $281 billion, exceeding American investments in the low-carbon economy that year. European firms also raked in tens of billions in extra profits.
Whether firms see a similar windfall from the Iran shock depends on the war's duration and price peaks, but with Brent crude above $100, the trajectory is clear. The question is not if extraordinary fossil fuel profits will occur, but how much, who will receive them, and whether governments will intervene.
Network Analysis: Tracing Profits to the Ultra-Wealthy
Our study's novelty lies in network analysis of holdings, tracing profits through 252,433 nodes—public companies, private equity, pension funds, and family offices—to ultimate beneficiaries. The results are stark: in the US, 50% of fossil fuel profit claims accrued to the wealthiest 1% of individuals, while the bottom 50% received just 1%. The top 0.1%—131,000 families—received 26 times more than the entire bottom half.
Racial and educational dimensions compound this inequality. White households, 64% of the population, captured 87% of profits, compared to 3% for Black households and 1% for Hispanic households. College graduates alone claimed 79% of total profits.
Inflation Inequality: A Double Burden for the Poor
The 2022 crisis produced stark inflation inequality through two channels. Lower-income households spend more on essentials like energy—3.3% of their budget on gasoline versus 2.1% for the top 20%—making them disproportionately hit by price increases. Meanwhile, profits from those increases flowed almost entirely to the wealthy.
For the top 0.1%, incremental fossil fuel profits in 2022 nearly compensated for their entire inflation burden, while for the bottom 50%, compensation was statistically invisible at 0.05% of disposable income. This hidden redistribution, legal and opaque, recurs with every oil shock, as seen now with the war on Iran.
Europe's Repeat Crisis and Climate Risks
For Europe, this feels like a repeat. Higher energy prices will burden households, with gains captured by financial asset holders, stoking sellers' inflation. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, central banks may raise interest rates, complicating recovery from the 2022 crisis and risking unemployment. Europe's failure to transition from fossil fuel dependence, replacing Russia with US imports, now comes home to roost.
There is also a climate dimension: 2022 record profits rehabilitated the fossil fuel industry, boosting capital expenditure in new fields and reversing energy transition commitments. A new shock risks repeating this, especially as EU governments watered down climate policy in early 2026.
Policy Solutions: Excess Profit Taxes and Price Caps
Our study recommends a permanent excess profit tax on oil and gas, defined as returns above a specified threshold. Revenues could finance measures like Germany's 2022 gas price brake to protect households or fund the low-carbon energy transition, reducing future vulnerability. Alternatively, oil and gas prices could be capped in wholesale markets through multilateral efforts, as shown by the cap on Russian oil prices.
Taxing only 2022 incremental US profits would have yielded $225 billion—enough to nearly double American clean energy investment or double it across emerging markets excluding China. Globally, $280 billion in excess profits went to private companies.
The UK and EU introduced temporary excess profit taxes in 2022, but the EU's expired, and the US declined to act. As prices rebalanced, the political window closed, but it is about to open again with the current crisis.
The Missing Ingredient: Political Will
The question for European governments and discussions on the Strait of Hormuz fallout is whether this opportunity will be used. Evidence is available, mechanisms are understood, and the cycle is repeating. We could prevent profiteering and protect ordinary people. What is missing is not knowledge, but political will to act decisively.
