Martin Lewis has given a blunt explanation for why UK motorists are seeing petrol and diesel prices soar at the pumps, despite the country drawing little of its energy directly from the Middle East.
Since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, diesel has hit an all-time high of 200.1p per litre, while petrol prices are up around 34 per cent. This is hitting vehicle owners and businesses hard amid the cost-of-living crisis.
Why a Middle East conflict affects UK prices
The UK relies mostly on domestic output for crude oil, while natural gas comes largely from UK and Norway-owned fields in the North Sea. However, a larger share of the UK's jet and diesel fuel does come from the Middle East, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
On ITV's Martin Lewis Money Show Live, host Jeanette Kwakye read a viewer's tweet: "If the UK only gets 10 per cent of its oil from the Middle East, why has all of our petrol and diesel increased so much?"
Mr Lewis answered: "Because oil is a global price. It is as simple as that. It's a global price. Just think about it. Countries that rely on the Middle East, they don't have oil supply. They have to buy elsewhere, from the same people who are currently supplying us."
"So there's more demand for the same or less supply, prices go up everywhere, and it's a pretty constant price across the globe," he added.
Will prices come down by Christmas?
Asked whether he thought prices would fall by Christmas, Mr Lewis said: "In many ways, that's impossible to answer. Fuel is made up really with two chunks - you've got just under half of it as tax combined with fuel duty and VAT. We've obviously got a Budget coming, so that is in the Chancellor's control if he wants to do it."
He noted: "It is currently predicted that fuel duty will rise in January and March - I can't see in this political environment him actually doing it. Whether he'll actually bring it down is another matter."
"One side is political - what the Chancellor chooses to do in the Budget in a couple of weeks? The other side is, what happens in the Middle East? If it de-escalates, it will start to come down. If it doesn't de-escalate and it stays where it is now, the price will probably stay high. That's as good as I can give you, I'm afraid," he said.
How much have prices risen?
Petrol prices have increased by 8 per cent to 174.8p per litre in the past month, while diesel has risen by 9 per cent to 200.1p per litre. That represents an increase of more than 40 per cent for diesel and almost 34 per cent for petrol since the conflict with Iran began.
It is even higher than the surge witnessed at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when diesel reached about 198.5p per litre and petrol was 191.1p per litre.
What motorists can do
The obvious answer is to use less petrol or diesel, which could include travelling less, or taking alternative transport such as cycling, walking, buses, or trains. An alternative could be using an electric or hybrid vehicle.
However, for many, that is not an option. Some may have to drive to reach work or use a vehicle while working, and swapping to an electric vehicle may lack the time or money.
One thing that can help is a feature on Google Maps, which shows fuel prices to help motorists find the cheapest in the area.
