Star Wars Day has been overshadowed by grim box office predictions for The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first Star Wars film in seven years, which is expected to open to a franchise low. The fourth of May, traditionally a celebration of the saga inspired by the pun “may the force be with you,” sees fans marrying in themed weddings and buying merchandise, but Disney executives are likely far from amused.
Early tracking data suggests the movie, starring Pedro Pascal as the masked bounty hunter and his companion Grogu (Baby Yoda), will struggle significantly. Current forecasts indicate an opening weekend of around $80 million (£59 million) over the US Memorial Day weekend, which would be lower than 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story—widely regarded as the franchise’s financial nadir. Solo opened to $84 million and ultimately grossed $393 million globally against a $365 million production budget.
The new film has received mixed reactions from fans, with a recent trailer prompting criticism that it resembles a television episode rather than a cinematic release. One disgruntled fan tweeted: “Looks like Mandalorian and Grogu is aimed squarely at five to 12-year-olds, which is a billion dollar market. It’s gen alpha Ewok Adventures.”
Production and Cast
The Mandalorian and Grogu carries a reported $165 million (£121 million) price tag before marketing—the lowest in Star Wars movie history. Directed by Jon Favreau, known for Iron Man and his work on The Mandalorian TV series, the film follows Pascal’s bounty hunter teaming up with Grogu to rescue Jabba the Hutt’s estranged son Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White (The Bear). Sigourney Weaver also stars.
Franchise Challenges
The release comes at a turbulent time for Star Wars, following several divisive TV series and the departure of longtime franchise chief Kathleen Kennedy from Lucasfilm earlier this year. She has been succeeded by Dave Filoni, previously chief creative officer. While The Mandalorian and Grogu may not reverse the franchise’s fortunes, Disney reportedly has high hopes for 2027’s Starfighter, starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Shawn Levy (Deadpool). Levy has described Starfighter as “an all-new non-sequel, non-prequel adventure” with fresh characters and timeline.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in cinemas on 22 May.
