A startling new gasoline price forecast signals troubling news for consumers: fuel costs are projected to reach their highest level in four years this summer, and could potentially set all-time record highs if the conflict with Iran persists.
Analysts at GasBuddy, a mobile application that assists drivers in locating the cheapest fuel in their vicinity, have warned that during the summer driving season—spanning from Memorial Day to Labor Day—nationwide gasoline prices will average $4.80 per gallon. Should the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway responsible for handling one-fifth of the global oil supply, remain obstructed by Iran, this average could climb above $5.00 per gallon, establishing new all-time record highs.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, described this as the most volatile summer at the pump in years. GasBuddy operates primarily through crowdsourcing, relying on its users to actively report fuel prices at their local stations, data which it then aggregates and publishes on a live map.
The national average price of gasoline last exceeded $4.80 per gallon in June 2022. During that summer, the national average broke the $5.00 mark, peaking at an all-time high of $5.02 per gallon. Even if the conflict with Iran is eventually resolved and oil transit out of the Middle East is unblocked, gas prices are unlikely to drop below $3.00 per gallon for months, possibly up to a year.
Bret Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro, noted that fuel price spikes typically take a couple of months to work their way into household budgets. If energy costs remain elevated, the second half of the year could present a more complicated economic environment.
According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline currently stands at $4.56, up from $2.98 before the conflict—a 53 percent increase since the end of February. Twelve weeks into the war, President Donald Trump has downplayed the gas price spike, telling reporters recently that he is in no rush to end the conflict. 'I'm in no hurry. Everyone is saying, "Oh, the midterms." I'm in no hurry,' Trump said in response to a question about striking a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Vice President JD Vance struck a similar tone during a White House press briefing, arguing that the Iran conflict is not a 'forever war.' He added that the administration is 'very aware' of rising gas prices, noting they are a 'temporary' increase. 'Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they're going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover,' said De Haan.
