China’s population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with births plunging to a record low despite government efforts to encourage childbearing. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that registered births fell to 7.92 million, a 17% drop from 9.54 million in 2024, and the lowest since records began in 1949. The population decreased by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, while deaths rose to 11.31 million.
The birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people is the lowest on record. Demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison noted that births in 2025 were roughly equivalent to levels seen in 1738, when China’s population was about 150 million. The death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 was the highest since 1968.
Beijing has introduced policies to boost births, including a 90bn yuan (£9.65bn) childcare subsidy for children under three and plans to cover all childbirth-related expenses under national health insurance. However, high costs remain a barrier. Raising a child to age 18 costs an average of 538,000 yuan, over 6.3 times GDP per capita, compared with 4.11 times in the US and 4.26 times in Japan, according to a Chinese thinktank.
The legacy of the one-child policy, in force from 1980 to 2015, has conditioned many to prefer single-child households and reduced the pool of people of child-bearing age. The population is ageing rapidly, with over-60s accounting for about 23% of the total. By 2035, those over 60 are expected to reach 400 million, straining pension budgets. China has already raised retirement ages to 63 for men and 58 for women.
Marriages, a leading indicator for births, fell by a fifth in 2024. However, a rule change in May 2025 allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country led to a 22.5% year-on-year increase in marriages in the third quarter. Full 2025 marriage data is pending. Authorities are promoting positive views on marriage and childbearing to counter long-term demographic trends.
