Researchers have developed a mathematical model suggesting that aiming for 'above average' rather than the moon is more likely to lead to success. The study, published in Physical Review E, challenges the motivational idiom 'shoot for the moon' by showing that excessive ambition often backfires.
The model, created by economists and ecologists, simulates scenarios such as job hunting, flat renting, or even dating. It finds that setting a threshold slightly above average yields the best outcomes, while being overly ambitious leads to worse results than being underambitious by the same margin.
Lead author Matt Burgess, an economist at the University of Wyoming, said: 'The core insight from our work is that you’re going to be best off, typically, if you try to do better than average, but not infinitely well.' The model also warns against comparing success to highlights on social media, which can cause chronic dissatisfaction.
The researchers acknowledge real life is more complex, and co-author Kath Landgren of Stanford University advises: 'Shoot for the stars, but make sure that the stars you’re seeing are what’s really out there.' Peter Ayton of Leeds University Business School called the study a 'thought-provoking insight into the relationship between ambition and achievement'.
