A report by the Food Foundation has warned that British shoppers face rising risks around daily grocery staples as domestic supply chains rely heavily on overseas regions hit by extreme heat and drought.
The report reveals that 80% of the UK's fruit and nearly half of its vegetables are imported, with about 18% coming from countries at high to moderate risk of climate change.
Vulnerable crops and price projections
Tomatoes, citrus and bananas are among the most vulnerable crops. Tomatoes face severe risk, with 84% imported, mainly from water-stressed parts of Southern Europe and North Africa.
Projections show climate stress in major source nations like Spain could push tomato prices up by £5.20 per kilogram by 2050. Global citrus production costs are also expected to rise by £1.3 billion due to extreme weather, passing higher prices to supermarket checkouts.
Supply shocks and shortages
Salad crops and Mediterranean produce like peppers, cucumbers and onions routinely suffer supply shocks during severe weather, such as recent floods in Valencia and droughts in North Africa.
Supermarkets have already experienced shortages of strawberries, raspberries, avocados and peppers this year. Soft fruits rely heavily on overseas growing seasons, with the UK producing under 40% of its demand for four of its five most popular native fruits, and 84% of pears imported.
Domestic production potential
While the UK remains highly self-sufficient in hardy crops like carrots at 94%, British growers struggle with rising input costs, especially for heated glasshouses needed for off-season crops, according to the report.
Although citrus and bananas must be imported, crops like tomatoes, mushrooms, peppers, cucumbers, onions, broccoli and green beans can be grown domestically. Experts note the UK has the land and capacity to grow far more produce and protein-rich legumes too.
Warmer UK conditions are making crops like chickpeas, cowpeas and soy increasingly viable. The report also stressed that shorter supply chains could offer significantly higher price stability and resilience during global market shocks.
The Food Foundation is calling for government support to help British farmers boost local production.
