Weather maps indicate that temperatures could climb to 28C in parts of southern England on September 24, with 37 counties potentially seeing 25C or more later this month.
Forecasts suggest areas of high pressure could have a greater influence on the weather during the latter part of September, bringing a return to above-average daytime temperatures and some drier spells. The warmer conditions would follow a more unsettled week, with the Met Office forecasting changeable weather over the next seven days, including bands of rain, blustery winds and heavy showers moving in from the Atlantic, interspersed with drier and brighter interludes.
Counties set for 25C or more
Temperature maps from WXCharts, using ECMWF's high-resolution weather model, suggest maximum temperatures could reach 28C in parts of southern England, particularly London and the Home Counties. Large parts of southern England and the Midlands, as well as parts of northern England and eastern Wales, could also see highs of 25C or more, according to the maps.
The English counties that could see 25C or more include Bedfordshire, Berkshire, Bristol, Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, Cheshire, City of London, Derbyshire, Dorset, East Sussex, Essex, Gloucestershire, Greater London, Hampshire, Herefordshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Rutland, Shropshire, Somerset, South Yorkshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Warwickshire, West Midlands, West Sussex, West Yorkshire, Wiltshire and Worcestershire. The Welsh counties that could see 25C or more are Powys and Monmouthshire.
Forecast caution and summer records
Long-range forecasts should be treated with caution. While they can indicate broader temperature trends, they cannot reliably predict conditions on a specific day several weeks in advance. The Met Office says that beyond a week, day-to-day weather becomes increasingly difficult to forecast.
Earlier this month, the Met Office announced that the summer of 2026, which had an average mean temperature of 16.5C, was provisionally the hottest summer on record in the UK. The summer was also among the sunniest on record in some parts of the country and was notably dry for many areas, although late-season rainfall prevented several places from breaking low-rainfall records.
Dr Amy Doherty, who leads the National Climate Information Centre at the Met Office, said: "The conditions we’ve seen this summer have broken UK climate records once again. These records are now breaking with increasing frequency, reflecting the influence of human-induced climate change on the temperatures we’re experiencing in the UK.
"Particularly notable is how much we’ve exceeded the previous summer mean temperature record, set just last year. The figures also knock the infamous summer of 1976 down to seventh for average summer mean temperature, with the top five warmest summers all occurring since 2003."
A recent rapid climate attribution study conducted by Met Office scientists has shown the record-breaking summer was made around 130 times more likely because of human-induced climate change. This warming trend is expected to continue as the global average temperature increases in response to greenhouse gas emissions.
