Russia could launch a massive drone and missile attack on the Baltic states to test NATO, a geopolitical analyst has warned. David DeBatto said Moscow might pursue an option involving limited confrontation to see how NATO, specifically the United States, backs up the Baltic countries. He told TVP World's World News Tonight: "And based on that, he will then be even more aggressive."
Baltic states as likely targets
DeBatto added that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia would be the most likely targets for such a move, which could involve missiles and drones to disrupt communications and air defences. His warning follows a surprise visit to Moscow by CIA director John Ratcliffe, after US intelligence discovered that Russia is planning to test NATO.
The US spy chief is said to have told Kremlin officials not to escalate conflict with the alliance, in particular Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Reports suggest Ratcliffe warned Russia against launching any action in response to its war in Ukraine.
Warning to Russia
One person familiar with the visit told POLITICO that his "meeting was primarily to warn Russia against any escalatory action against the Baltic states." Analysts suggested to the Wall Street Journal that Ratcliffe may have met with Vladimir Putin to deliver a warning against any such action.
He also reportedly asked Ukraine to halt strikes on Russia during the visit, which was discovered after a US Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport plane and diplomatic motorcade were spotted at a Moscow airport.
Lithuania's defensive preparations
In a related development, Baltic state Lithuania is planning to dig 20-metre-wide anti-mobility trenches along its borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus, the government confirmed on Wednesday. The Lithuanian cabinet approved changes to its defensive engineering plan, creating a new counter-mobility belt starting from the edge of the border patrol track and extending into Lithuanian territory.
In areas designated by the armed forces as operational zones, the strips can reach 150 metres in width. Construction of the defensive lines is scheduled for completion by the end of 2028 at a cost of about £43 million. Deputy Defence Minister Tomas Mikelkevičius said the measures aim to make the best use of Lithuania's terrain and engineering obstacles, adding they would "impede an adversary's movement if necessary and create more favourable conditions for our armed forces to operate."
