Diesel prices could rise even further in the UK after topping £2 a litre, an energy resources expert has warned, as many drivers consider filling up sooner rather than later.
Ellen Fraser, Energy and Resources Associate Partner at consultancy Baringer, spoke on BBC Radio 4's Moneybox programme as US President Donald Trump weighs up a complete ban on diesel exports.
UK diesel stocks at 42 days
New research from Sky News, drawing on analysis of multiple data sources, indicated that the UK holds just 42 days' worth of emergency diesel import stocks as of July 2026. Government figures from last year reveal that the US supplies roughly a third of all diesel imported into the UK.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM, warned there would be an "immediate effect" on the UK should a ban be introduced, adding that road haulage, agriculture, construction and distribution would be the hardest-hit sectors.
Expert cites multiple pressures
Ms Fraser told listeners: "There are so many things going on here. So we've got the Strait of Hormuz which is taking out both crude oil but also refinery capacity. We've got what's going on in Russia and that's taken out refinery capacity particularly in the diesel markets which is behind some of the spike here."
"But for diesel and some of the products we're also going into the winter months so people are stocking up before we go into winter. And in agriculture for example we've got all the farmers out in the fields harvesting. That's just putting general pressure on refined products and a bit of a consumption peak and that's causing the prices to nudge up a little bit as well."
Show host Paul Lewis asked: "Filling up your car the average price of unleaded £1.74 a litre, diesel this morning I saw at over £2 breaking possibly the record. The RAC says prices likely to rise further. Do you agree?"
Ms Fraser replied: "I think that is likely based on the really tight demand-side market - so yes."
Heating oil advice
Turning to those relying on heating fuel oil across the UK, Mr Lewis questioned whether households should purchase supplies immediately: "Been a tough time for people using heating oil this year and now of course they face winter buying oil as the price heads up. Is it a good idea to wait?"
Ms Fraser responded: "It's always really hard to give advice because the energy markets are incredibly tight at the moment and thast means that they're really volatile, so you get bounces up and you get bounces down."
"But when we're looking at the oil markets currently the forward curves don't suggest that they're going to come off much over the winter period and we're expecting those prices to stay high until at least April and May which is obviously far too late to fill the tanks."
"If I was in those shoes now I would probably lock in and fill up."
Mr Lewis said: "Talking of Ofgem it's price cap rises on Wednesday. The price of gas is going up, electricity fairly flat, but then from January 1 there have been two forecasts, one reported in the paper today, the price cap will rise by 25% - an extra £400-odd a year. Do you agree with that?"
Ms Fraser said: "We haven't got a solid prediction yet. Based on gas prices which have at least doubled during the period since the last price cap was set and since the beginning of this year, that's creating a lot of upwards pressure specifically on the gas element of the domestic price for customers and remember the 25% you've quoted there is for a dueal fuel customer who's got electricity and gas. That's not unrealistic - I think that's a good approximation. We'll obviously see later this week how that plays through."
Earlier this week, Trump announced his backing of Republican proposals to suspend diesel exports in a bid to ease prices ahead of the mid-term elections in November. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a review underway of whether a ban could work, as American diesel prices reached record highs at over £4.87 a gallon.
It comes as reports suggested Iran's IRGC has substantially escalated its targeting of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past hours, launching anti-ship cruise missiles and drones while fast-attack boats engage tankers with guided rockets, machine guns and small arms. At least three vessels have been struck and a fourth has turned around, with a second source putting the number struck last night at up to six, the Hormuz Letter said.
