The Met Office has issued its verdict on the polar vortex as El Niño raises the potential for heavy snow, stormy conditions and flooding across the UK this winter.
Plummeting temperatures and turbulent weather could batter the UK in the months ahead as El Niño continues to wreak havoc on global weather patterns.
The Met Office has warned of a "heightened potential" for wet, windy, stormy weather and flooding this autumn. Forecasters also cautioned that the phenomenon could interfere with cold Arctic winds known as the stratospheric polar vortex.
El Niño could trigger temperature drop this winter
However, the most recent forecasts indicate that El Niño is currently more likely to trigger a drop in temperatures this winter, rather than generating a polar vortex over the UK this autumn.
The Met Office added that the phenomenon is also expected to usher in wet and windy weather this week, with rainy and gusty conditions already anticipated across parts of the country from Monday.
Experts warn that atmospheric waves triggered by El Niño destabilise the polar vortex, further raising the likelihood of heavy snowfall.
Above-average chances of rain, wind and mild conditions
The Met Office's long-range outlook for the next three months points to above-average chances of rain, wind and mild conditions. The probability of the October to December period being wet overall is double the usual rate, while windy and mild weather is also more likely than the norm.
Dr Will Lang, chief forecaster at the Met Office, described it as a "subtle shift in the odds" rather than a definitive prediction of wetter, milder and windier conditions. He stated: "We are going in with a heightened potential for wet weather, heightened potential for potentially stormy conditions, and that leads through to a heightened potential for flooding."
Late winter could bring drier, colder conditions
Early indications also suggest that late winter could bring an increased likelihood of drier, colder and more settled conditions. The Met Office reports that the probable weather patterns are consistent with the influence of El Niño on UK autumn and winter conditions.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become considerably warmer than usual, altering atmospheric circulation patterns and impacting weather across the globe.
A record-breaking "Godzilla" El Niño has already taken hold in recent months. These latest predictions follow a drier than average September across much of the UK, which came on the back of a record-breaking hot summer with widespread drought across England and Wales, bringing hosepipe bans, damage to crops and wildlife, and outbreaks of fire.
The UK recorded just 77% of its average summer rainfall, with all regions except north-west Scotland enduring a parched summer. Parts of southern and eastern England were particularly hard hit, including a remarkable run of 62 consecutive days without rainfall at Wisley, Surrey.
The Environment Agency has warned that the drought will persist until reservoirs and aquifers are replenished, with above-average rainfall required to restore conditions to normal levels.
