Alex de Minaur faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarter-final on Tuesday evening, with the Australian hoping his improved serve can bridge the gap against the world No 1. De Minaur has lost all five previous meetings with Alcaraz, but this is their first grand slam encounter, and the home favourite is playing the best tennis of his career.
De Minaur's off-season break in Spain and a renewed mindset have contributed to his strong form. He has lost just one set en route to the quarter-finals, and his serving stats are impressive: tied 12th in points won on first serve (79%) and tied sixth on second serve (62%). Former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash noted De Minaur's altered baseline position, which allows him to attack more effectively, drawing comparisons to Andre Agassi.
De Minaur's return game has also been exceptional, winning 40% of points on opponents' first serves, the best in the tournament. However, Alcaraz has served well, making 68% of first serves, and has played within himself so far. The key for De Minaur will be his first serve percentage, which averaged 62% in Melbourne compared to 52% in his last two matches against Alcaraz.
The match is scheduled for the evening session on Rod Laver Arena, likely with the roof closed due to forecast temperatures above 40°C. This could benefit De Minaur's flatter groundstrokes, as Alcaraz has yet to reach the semi-finals in Melbourne. De Minaur, who has long spoken of playing in Australia as a privilege, now genuinely believes he can compete with the best.
