Wales may have got November off to a winning start, but their 28-21 victory over Japan at the Principality Stadium did little to suggest they are ready for the challenge that awaits them this weekend. New Zealand arrive in Cardiff on Saturday after putting 43 points past Scotland at Murrayfield. Wales will have to improve significantly in almost every department if they are to avoid a difficult afternoon against Dave Rennie's side.
Selection dilemmas for Tandy
That leaves Steve Tandy with some big decisions to make as he considers his team selection in the next 24 hours. Does he stick with the players who secured the win over Japan or twist in the hope of finding a stronger combination? There is a strong case for keeping changes to a minimum. Wales had precious little preparation time before facing Japan and another week together should help the side develop greater cohesion and understanding.
But Tandy will not have been blind to the shortcomings of Saturday's performance. There were areas that simply were not good enough, and the head coach may feel a few changes are needed if Wales are to give themselves a realistic chance against the All Blacks.
Stick or twist at number 10?
There is a growing sense that Tandy has yet to settle on his first-choice outside-half, with the Rugby World Cup now less than a year away. In truth, there is little to separate Sam Costelow and Dan Edwards, although the two playmakers bring different qualities to the position.
Costelow was far from poor against Japan, but there were occasions when he opted to kick possession away when keeping the ball in hand might have been the better option. The Scarlets fly-half tends to play flatter to the gainline, and his distribution could be particularly valuable in bringing Wales' powerful midfield runners into the game. Edwards, by contrast, is a more instinctive player who is comfortable playing off the cuff. He also brings an obvious confidence to his game, something that can be infectious within a team.
More ball carriers in the back-row?
One issue that has been apparent for some time, and was again evident against Japan, is Wales' lack of explosive ball carriers in the pack. They need players capable of consistently getting over the gainline, generating quick ball and making significant post-contact metres. Jac Morgan and Aaron Wainwright are certainties to retain their places, but the identity of the third member of the back row remains less clear.
Alex Mann played well against Japan, winning three turnovers and making 18 tackles. He is an industrious player who takes care of much of the unseen work, allowing Morgan and Wainwright greater freedom to carry and influence proceedings elsewhere. But there is a compelling argument that Wales need a more powerful carrying presence in the back row, particularly against the physical challenge New Zealand will pose.
One possibility would be to move Wainwright to blindside flanker, where he has featured for Leicester Tigers this season, and bring Taine Basham in at No 8. Basham has been outstanding for Cardiff this season and offers the sort of explosive carrying that Wales sometimes lack. Kane James is another who offers similar qualities and could come into the conversation. The alternative is to bring James Botham into the back row at blindside, while Scarlets backrower Taine Plumtree is also an option, especially considering how poor the lineout was against Japan.
Swap the props around?
Tandy will also be giving serious consideration to changing his front-row combination. Against Japan, he opted to start with Nicky Smith and Archie Griffin, leaving Rhys Carre and Tomas Francis to provide impact from the bench. The days when a place among the replacements automatically suggested a player was second choice are long gone. Coaches increasingly look to use their bench as a weapon, particularly in the final quarter when fatigue begins to set in.
But Wales cannot afford to give New Zealand an early foothold in the contest. If they start as slowly as they have done in previous matches, the All Blacks will be out of sight after 20 minutes. Carre's explosive carrying and ability to produce something out of nothing could make him an attractive option from the outset. At tighthead, Francis remains the stronger scrummager, but Griffin arguably offers more around the park with his work rate and mobility. Throughout his time in charge, Tandy has tended to pair Carre with Francis and Smith with Griffin, seemingly favouring those partnerships for their scrummaging balance.
More impact from the bench
Wales could also do with finding greater impact from their replacements, particularly against a New Zealand side capable of putting opponents under enormous pressure in the closing stages. If Basham does not make the starting XV he should be selected on the bench. Exeter Chiefs back-rower James offers similar qualities and should also be in the conversation.
A more adventurous option would be to consider handing Macs Page a place among the replacements. It would undoubtedly be a bold selection, but the Scarlets wing has been outstanding this season and possesses the attacking ability to cause opposition defences serious problems. Tandy may be reluctant to throw such a relatively inexperienced player into a Test against the All Blacks, but Page has the potential to provide exactly the sort of attacking spark Wales could need.
