Even without the full verdict, it is clear that Manchester City are guilty in the 115 case. And even if the club produce the ‘irrefutable evidence’ they have said from the start that they possess, they would still be charged for non-cooperation.
They deserve a punishment that fits the crimes and those responsible should take accountability given that the fans and players who will be impacted had nothing to do with it. But it is important to remember at this point that it remains unclear what they are guilty of.
Guilty of 114 out of 115?
The Blues were widely described on Friday as being guilty of ‘114 out of 115’ charges, which was surprising in two senses - first that they were far more guilty than experts expected but then that we are back talking about 115 charges. As part of the endless chatter over the last few years, plenty have regularly pointed out that the number of charges City face was actually more like 130.
While 115 has been the shorthand to describe the case, that number did not actually accurately reflect the number of breaches City are accused of. Have 15 charges disappeared then, or should we be saying that City are guilty of 129 out of 130? Or could it actually be four out of five?
The five blocks of charges
Given it is difficult to succinctly sum up more than a hundred things, the charges have always been split into five blocks when describing the case. They are as follows:
- Failure to provide accurate and up-to-date financial information between 2009 and 2018
- Failure to provide accurate financial reports for player and manager compensation between 2009 and 2018
- Failure to comply with UEFA regulations, including Financial Fair Play regulations
- Breaching Premier League Profitability and Sustainability Rules between 2015 and 2018
- Failure to co-operate with Premier League investigations between 2018 and 2023
As mentioned, City were always likely to be found guilty of number five and always likely - as they did at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in 2020 - to accept a hefty fine for it and say that they didn't agree with the premise of the investigation. That is the least important of the five sections as it wasn't the reason for them being investigated in the first place.
The second section relates to alleged dual contracts for individuals such as Roberto Mancini and Yaya Toure in order to facilitate paying them more than was officially reported, so would still be cheating but on a lesser scale. And the third and fourth tie in with the first two - if City have not been honest with their bookkeeping then they will have in all likelihood breached UEFA and Premier League financial rules.
The most serious charges
The most significant and serious has always been the first bracket, which is effectively disguising money pumped in by the owner as sponsorship. Guilt on these charges is the difference between punishments for City being mammoth points deductions that would effectively relegate the club and more minor penalties that would sting but not seriously rock the club.
They may well have been found guilty in this section, but the frustration for everybody is that there is no full verdict so nobody can know. In the absence of that, the notion that they have been found guilty of 114/115 offences is dubious simply because it has been established that there weren't ever 115 offences.
Some fans have questioned whether it could have been interpreted wrong, and if City are just guilty of the vast majority of charges. They would still expect a punishment for that, but it would not be the doomsday scenario that has been speculated since Friday.
Everyone has also been here before - and not just once. UEFA announced that City would be kicked out of the Champions League in 2020 before CAS completely overturned the ruling months later, while what was reported in October 2024 as a victory for the Premier League over City in a ruling on Associated Party Transactions on "the majority" of challenges was actually a decisive victory for City because of the points where they were successful.
This time it feels like it will be more difficult for City to overturn the guilt. If the three-man independent panel have ruled in the Premier League's favour on the majority of counts, that appears to be basically a worst-case scenario for the club that they will have to pay a huge price for.
But until the full picture can be seen - and we still do not know, frustratingly, when the verdict will be published - it is impossible to say, and the mystery of the reappearing 115 number adds to the ongoing confusion around a case where City are accused of using illegal ways to make things add up.
