Analysis of World Cup data from 1994 onwards reveals a rich history of underdog victories, with the 2022 tournament set to feature 48 teams for the first time, increasing the potential for shocks. The FIFA men's world ranking system, introduced in 1993, provides a metric to measure upsets based on ranking disparities between teams.
Notable upsets include Bulgaria's quarter-final win over top-ranked Germany in 1994, and France's 3-0 defeat of Brazil in the 1998 final. The 2002 World Cup saw Senegal beat reigning champions France in the opening match, while South Korea reached the semi-finals after victories over Portugal, Italy, and Spain.
Germany 2006 recorded the most upsets in recent history with 21, including Ukraine's round-of-16 win over Switzerland. In 2010, South Africa became the first host nation eliminated in the group stage despite defeating France, while North Korea lost all three group matches on their debut.
The 2014 tournament featured Costa Rica topping a group containing three former world champions, and the 2018 World Cup saw Russia reach the quarter-finals as the lowest-ranked host nation. The data highlights that upsets are most common in group stages, though knockout round surprises also occur.
