Fremantle stand on the brink of a first AFL premiership, one win away from immortality, while Brisbane chase a third consecutive flag as the two-time reigning premiers meet the best side of the home-and-away campaign in the grand final at the MCG.
The Dockers have already broken new ground with a 14-match winning streak and a club record 19 victories that earned a second minor premiership in their 32nd season. Early dominance laid down a marker as the team to beat before a pair of stumbles on the run home hinted they could still be weighed down by history.
Fremantle appeared to suffer from stage fright as they failed to fire a shot in a home qualifying final loss to Hawthorn. But Justin Longmuir's side has since revived their premiership dream with rousing triumphs in a tense tussle with Geelong and when over-running Sydney in a preliminary final.
Brisbane's familiar ground
The Lions are back on familiar ground as the battle-hardened side rolls into a fourth consecutive grand final on Saturday. They are already the first club to win five premierships this century after three consecutive flags from 2001 to 2003, and with back-to-back successes over the past two seasons. The modern-day powerhouse that rose out of the ashes of the Brisbane Bears and Fitzroy Lions merger in 1996 could now join Melbourne as the only clubs in VFL/AFL history to claim a pair of premiership three-peats.
Brisbane have followed much the same path as last year after they blew hot and cold throughout the season and were given a reality check in a qualifying final. A horror defeat to the undermanned Swans was followed by a typically dominant display to blow away the Crows, before the two-time reigning premiers edged one of the all-time classic games to snatch a grand final spot from the Hawks.
Fremantle proved “Flagmantle” might be more than just a fun slogan when opening up a commanding lead and then holding off the reigning premiers in round 12. They now meet in a final for the first time, with the Dockers hoping for a fairytale ending and the Lions out to rubber-stamp their status as one of the great teams of the AFL era.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Fremantle have learned the hard way about the lift in intensity as the stakes rise after only winning a combined three-quarters across their three finals this year. The Dockers made the most of a fast start against the Cats in their semi-final before resisting several challenges from last year's runners-up. The preliminary final victory was closer to the pattern of their performances as they kicked the only five goals of the final term while holding the Swans to a single behind. Longmuir's side has equalled the VFL/AFL record with eight victories in a season after trailing at the last change and can have confidence running out the game while the Lions have played the maximum number of matches possible over the past three seasons.
The Dockers are the top-ranked defence with an average of 74 points conceded this year and showed in the come-from-behind victory against the Swans how they can control a game, and limit the opposition scoring, by dominating the territory battle. They overwhelmed the Swans with 13-5 clearances, 51-27 contested possessions and 24-6 inside-50s as their onball brigade took command at the stoppages and their well-honed structure locked the ball in the forward half.
Winning the centre clearance count will be especially important against the Lions to deny their fleet-footed forwards time and space, especially as the Dockers will be eager to avoid a shootout. They will also need to get more from their key forwards who have combined for a formidable 45% of their scores this year, though Josh Treacy (two goals), Jye Amiss (four) and Patrick Voss (five) have mostly underwhelmed through the finals series.
Lions' offensive juggernaut
Brisbane have flipped the script on how to reach the pointy end of the season as they lean into their enviable spread of firepower to become an offensive juggernaut. The Lions have averaged 118 points since they put three straight mid-season defeats behind them to win 12 of their past 14 matches. The two eyebrow-raising losses in that run came when conceding 154 points to the Blues and 141 in the final against the Swans, but Chris Fagan will back his attack to outscore any opposition. The forward line is centred around young spearhead Logan Morris (69 goals) but Charlie Cameron (58), Kai Lohmann (53), Zac Bailey (34) and Cam Rayner (27) have shown in recent weeks, and previously on the biggest stage, they can all tear apart a final.
The Lions' heavy scoring often starts at the coalface as the top-ranked side for clearance differential at +5.3 a game this season. The Dockers received fair warning of the danger coming from centre ball-ups in particular when the Lions slammed on eight goals from the source against the Hawks. Brisbane will be buoyed to know that seven of the past eight premiers outscored their grand final opposition from centre clearance. The Lions have the poise to control the game with slow and steady kick-mark chains when called for, which helps protect a defence that can at times look shaky and lacks an obvious player to lock down on Dockers livewire Shai Bolton.
Gamechangers
Luke Jackson: The Dockers ruck keeps showing he can do it all with his two goals alongside 15 disposals, eight score involvements and 27 hit-outs crucial to his side's comeback win against the Swans. The 24-year-old is arguably the most in-form player in the game, or at least the most impactful, with his freakish aerial talents and agility making him like another midfielder as much a goal threat. He has averaged career-highs for 18.6 disposals, five clearances and 25.8 hit-outs a game at the same time as booting a personal best 29 goals this season. Jackson has been here before when helping turn the 2021 grand final in the Demons' favour as his first club ended their premiership drought. His experience will be just as important against the Lions, with Mason Cox and Bolton the only other Dockers to have played on the grand final stage.
Will Ashcroft: The Lions midfielder might have been hard done by when he was left out of this year's All-Australian team but it is harder to deny his place among the top finals performers from the current crop of players. The 22-year-old already has two Norm Smith medals and again showed all his class and composure when a spot in this year's grand final was on the line against the Hawks. Ashcroft had three centre clearances in the final term, including at the last centre ball-up when his side was clinging to a narrow lead with 18 seconds left. A clean gather, a sideways step and a couple of bounces before finding Lohmann on the run put the result beyond doubt and underlined the son-of-a-gun's status as one of the very best big-game players. Ashcroft is still getting better as he has averaged a career-high 28.5 disposals and 5.5 clearances in his fourth season, with a third straight best afield nod on grand final day now there for the taking.
Prediction
Fremantle raised the bar to earn their place among the genuine contenders and could learn much from the two-time reigning premiers in how to time their run for the pointy end of the season. But Brisbane have the forward firepower and finals-hardened poise to claim a premiership three-peat with Will Ashcroft making it a double-triple as he wins a third Norm Smith medal.
