Manchester United may be languishing 12th in the Premier League table, but the underlying numbers paint a very different picture.
Squawka's alternative Premier League table, based on expected goals (xG), has United sitting top after five games – unbeaten with 11 points from a possible 15.
Arsenal drop to third in xG standings
Arsenal, meanwhile, have dropped to third in the xG standings after their shock 3-0 defeat by Brighton, with the Seagulls moving up to second. Brighton's victory ended the champions' perfect start and was Arsenal's first league defeat of the season.
The xG table converts the chances created and conceded in each match into an alternative scoreline, rather than simply using the actual result. Squawka's figures have United recording three wins and two draws, giving them 11 points compared with the five they have collected in reality.
United's alternative results
United's opening-day defeat at Hull is particularly striking. They lost 2-0, but the xG figures were 1.27-1.79 in their favour, producing a projected 2-1 victory.
Their 1-0 defeat by Manchester City is another example. It was the closest xG contest of the season so far, with City edging the chances 0.88 to 0.87, resulting in a projected 1-1 draw.
Man Utd’s alternative results:
- GW1: Hull 2-0 Man Utd — xG 1.27-1.79 → Man Utd win, 2-1
- GW2: Man Utd 5-2 Ipswich — xG 3.94-1.26 → Man Utd win, 4-1
- GW3: Everton 2-2 Man Utd — xG 1.09-0.81 → Draw, 1-1
- GW4: Man Utd 0-1 Man City — xG 0.88-0.87 → Draw, 1-1
- GW5: Fulham 1-1 Man Utd — xG 1.43-2.14 → Man Utd win, 2-1
That gives United an xG record of W3 D2 L0, 11 points, compared with their actual record of W1 D2 L2, five points.
Tottenham climb six places
Arsenal sit third on 10 points in the alternative standings, behind Brighton on goal difference, while Manchester City are fourth. Brentford complete the top five.
Perhaps the biggest surprise further down the table is Tottenham. Roberto De Zerbi's side remain winless after five league games and bottom of the actual Premier League standings with just two points.
But Spurs climb six places to 12th in Squawka's xG table, where their expected results would have given them six points. Their miserable start has therefore been somewhat better according to the chances created and conceded in their matches.
Tottenham finally scored their first league goals of the campaign in Saturday's 3-2 defeat by Aston Villa, but remain without a victory.
