Celtic's £11m signing Kasper Hogh has scored three league goals from 16 shots, with a conversion rate of 18.8%, while teammates Camilo Duran and Benjamin Nygren have each scored six goals with higher conversion rates, according to analysis of their Premiership data. The figures highlight a stark contrast in output among the club's most-used attackers this season.
Hogh's individual numbers trail teammates
Hogh, who has led the line in every league game he has played, averages 157 minutes per league goal. Duran, who has often been deployed out wide, has scored six goals from 26 shots, with 16 on target, a 23.1% conversion rate, and 110 minutes per goal. Nygren, effectively Celtic's second striker, has also scored six goals, from 17 shots with 11 on target, a 35% conversion rate, and 124 minutes per goal.
The data shows that Hogh is getting fewer shots away, a lower percentage on target, and converting fewer chances into goals compared to his teammates. Two caveats further highlight his struggles: the figures cover only league games, and Hogh has drawn a blank in European and cup matches, while Duran and Nygren have scored key goals in those competitions. Additionally, Duran and Nygren's goals have been spread across five separate games each, whereas Hogh's all came in one match.
Team balance improves without Hogh
Celtic's recent performances have shown a better balance when Hogh is on the bench and Duran leads the line, with the re-emergence of Callum Osmand on the left wing also contributing. Duran is a natural striker who does not enjoy being shunted out wide, and Hogh's poor individual data has been a notable factor in the team's struggles.
The 'Bodo Curse' has been cited as a possible explanation for Hogh's difficulties, noting that players from Bodo/Glimt often struggle after leaving the club. Of their ten most expensive sales, which include Hogh and Joel Mvuka, only Victor Boniface has kicked on as expected, though his recent move to Bayer Leverkusen appears to have found his ceiling.
Signs point to a change in approach
While it is too early to write Hogh off, and he may be suffering from a crisis of confidence in his early days at a new club, the data and trends suggest the signs point in one direction. The solution for Celtic is to stop persevering with the same approach and expecting different results. Duran has looked more of a threat up front, and starting him there facilitates the in-form Osmand's inclusion off the left flank, which is their best forward line at present. It is up to Hogh to put his poor start behind him and force his way back into the team.
