Chelsea's strong finishing has lifted them to fifth in the Premier League, but underlying data suggests their performances have been worse than Saturday's opponents Manchester United, who sit fifth-bottom. According to Opta's expected points model, the Blues have underperformed relative to their league position, raising questions about how sustainable their form is.
Expected goals paint a different picture
Despite holding healthy expected goal margins in wins over Fulham, Brighton and Everton, Chelsea were heavily outgunned against Arsenal and Brentford. The xG count also went slightly against them in home matches against Hull, Bournemouth and Tottenham, games they would reasonably expect to win.
Opta's data ranks Chelsea as the 12th-best team in the Premier League. Their rise to fifth has been driven by a hot finishing streak: they have scored 6.7 goals more than the quality of their chances imply, second only to Brighton (6.8), or above them if penalties are excluded. Chelsea scored five times from 10 shots against Bournemouth, a feat that happens less than once a season in the Premier League.
Individual overperformers unlikely to continue
Several players are exceeding their expected output. Jordan Henderson has scored twice from five shots outside the box, after netting once for every 20 long-range efforts between 2014 and last season. Pedro Neto's three league goals are two shy of his career best for a Premier League campaign. Morgan Rogers is ahead of his expected goals figure by 1.87, compared to 3.15 across the whole of last season. These players are unlikely to maintain such form across another 30 league games.
João Pedro is another of the 12 players above their non-penalty xG by at least 1.5 this season. The two league games the Brazilian missed are the two in which Chelsea failed to score, mustering a combined 1.3 expected goals against Brentford and Tottenham. His return from injury is eagerly awaited, as he provides a focal point for the frontline even when not scoring.
Possession concerns under Alonso
Keeping possession in the penalty area has become harder for Chelsea. Third in the division for opposition box touches after four matches, they now sit eighth. In their previous two home games at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea had 17 touches in the box, well below the Premier League average of 27 for home teams.
Alonso has overseen three league matches with a maximum of 38% possession, compared to four such games in almost three years at Leverkusen. His Bundesliga-winning Leverkusen team topped the German possession standings with 61.8%. Before the Carabao Cup defeat at Anfield, Alonso acknowledged the issue: "You want to have possession. Knowing the context, knowing what we are building, I think that we have room for improvement in that part. I think we need to play more confidently with the ball."
Historical context and tactical instability
History suggests Chelsea's 46.5% possession average makes Champions League qualification unlikely. Only Leicester's title win in the past 12 seasons saw a team finish in the top four with a lower possession average. West Ham's sixth-place finish in 2020-21 is the best showing otherwise.
Alonso has deployed 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 formations, neither for more than three consecutive league games. Only Tottenham have averaged more changes to their starting XI. Chelsea have started three goalkeepers, recalling 1996-97 when five keepers got starts, and have the second worst rate in the division for conceding over their expected goal level.
Much is uncertain at Stamford Bridge, but there is a sense of certainty about Manchester United: they are a poor team and Carrick will likely leave soon. Alonso is far from the exit door, but many questions about his side remain unanswered.
