The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday has been dramatically reshaped by significant rainfall, leaving the ground 'proper soft' and diminishing the chances of the Japanese contingent. After bright sunshine on Saturday, the turf was noticeably soft for the opening races, with jockeys reporting testing conditions. Dylan Browne McMonagle, winner of the Prix Chaudenay on Tennessee Stud, described the ground as 'proper soft' and 'going to take a lot of getting,' while Tom Marquand, victorious in the Prix du Cadran aboard Caballo De Mar, called it 'very soft but not heavy.'
The three Japanese runners—Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii, and Croix Du Nord—are the most affected, as Japanese racing is predominantly on good or faster ground. All three have drifted in the betting to 14-1 or bigger, having been as short as 8-1 a week ago. Their task was already complicated by wide draws for Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord, and the rain has further reduced their prospects. Japan has not won the Arc in 56 years, with 33 previous failures.
The balance has shifted towards European contenders, with six horses from France, Ireland, and England filling the top betting slots. Aidan O'Brien's Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four starts this season including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is the narrow favourite despite a tricky draw in stall one, which has not produced an Arc winner since 2008. Aventure, winner of the Prix Vermeille, is second favourite, while Sosie, fourth last year, is a 9-1 chance for trainer André Fabre, who seeks a record-extending ninth Arc victory.
Among the less fancied but intriguing options are Daryz and Cualificar. Daryz, who was unlucky not to beat Croix Du Nord last time, steps up to a mile and a half for the first time but is bred to appreciate the distance. Cualificar, trained by Fabre, won the Prix Niel last month on his debut over the Arc trip and is a three-year-old contender following the path of Fabre's six previous three-year-old Arc winners. Fabre's record in the race is unmatched, with twice as many wins as any other trainer in its 105-year history.
The Arc remains unusually competitive, with all leading contenders having questions to answer. Minnie Hauk's draw, Aventure's questionable form, Kalapana's poor warm-up, and Sosie's lack of improvement as a four-year-old leave the race open. Cualificar (3.05) and Daryz are seen as the most likely to take a significant step forward on the day, offering value in a wide-open renewal.
