The Welsh Rugby Union's decision to publish the Keystone Report was an attempt at transparency, but it has done little to quell criticism of its plan to allocate three professional licences across east, central and west Wales.
The union's current leadership faces an unenviable task, dealing with the consequences of years of underinvestment in the player pathway and professional game. With finances under pressure, the case for reform is difficult to ignore.
Scope of the Keystone Report
Keystone was asked to consider where three licences should be allocated, not whether reducing the professional game from four clubs to three was the right policy. Its report therefore cannot settle that more fundamental question.
The report considered population, commercial potential and geography, all legitimate factors in assessing long-term sustainability.
The WRU has also explained why it gave greater weight to factors such as population and infrastructure, which are relatively fixed, than to sporting performance and player pathways, which the new system is intended to improve.
That is a reasonable strategic argument, even if questions remain about how the criteria were applied.
Population vs Support
Population, however, is not the same as support. Rugby allegiance is built on history, family and local identity, not simply the number of people living within a catchment area.
There is no guarantee that Scarlets supporters would transfer their allegiance to the Ospreys if their club disappeared, or vice versa. Some might, but others could turn away from professional rugby altogether.
The Scarlets may have the smallest population catchment, but their attendances tell a more complicated story. They have averaged the second-highest crowds in recent years, while their European campaigns have shown what is possible when the team is successful.
In 2018, they sold out both their Champions Cup quarter-final against La Rochelle and their semi-final against Toulon, demonstrating that the appetite for big-game rugby is there when the team gives supporters something to believe in.
Population matters, but so do performance, ambition and the ability to turn a regional following into a full stadium.
Financial Case and the Dragons' Position
The same could be said of the Ospreys during their Galacticos period.
The financial case also requires greater clarity. Keystone rightly distinguishes revenue from genuine financial sustainability, but the published comparisons do not establish which combination of three clubs would be best placed to survive over the long term once debt, losses, cash requirements, stadium obligations and owner backing are considered.
There are compelling reasons to back the Dragons. Their owners have ambitious plans for Rodney Parade, the club has strong leadership and its region boasts more community clubs than any of the other three.
That provides a substantial foundation on which to build, both commercially and in developing the next generation of Welsh talent. The Dragons' ownership of Rodney Parade is also a clear asset, although the Scarlets' 110-year lease on Parc y Scarlets, which is recognised on their balance sheet, should form part of any fair comparison of infrastructure.
Questions Over the Process
The Dragons have a credible case for a place in Welsh rugby's future but there are those who will still question it due to historic performances. The question is whether the WRU has demonstrated, transparently and consistently, why its preferred allocation best serves the game as a whole.
Supporters of the western clubs will inevitably question the decision, particularly given their teams' stronger historical records on the pitch, and whether that was given sufficient weight in the process.
The union should publish the relevant board papers from May 2025 and July 2026 to disclose Keystone's full instructions and explain when and how the criteria were weighted.
It should also provide the clearest financial comparison possible without compromising legitimate commercial confidentiality.
The available evidence does not establish that the process was dishonest or unlawful. But it does leave important questions about how the final allocation was reached, particularly when Cardiff and the Dragons were protected while the Scarlets and Ospreys were left competing for the remaining place.
The issue is not whether one western club deserves to survive more than the other. It is whether the WRU can demonstrate that its decision was based on a consistent assessment of the interests of Welsh rugby, rather than simply on the merits of individual regions.
The WRU may have made its decision, but with so much still to be resolved, this is unlikely to be the final chapter in a story that could take several more twists and turns over the coming months.
