Keir Starmer may have bought himself some time after Thursday's local elections, but the results paint a troubling picture of a Britain more divided than ever. While Labour losses were not as catastrophic as some had feared, the broader trends suggest a fundamental shift in the political landscape.
Starmer's Stay of Execution
The prime minister's fate was thought to hinge on these contests, and early analyses suggest Labour will lose fewer than the 2,000 council seats that had been feared. With losses likely to fall short of the 1,500 threshold that could trigger a leadership challenge, Starmer has been granted a reprieve. However, even his closest allies do not expect him to lead the party into the next general election; they merely ask for another year to turn things around.
One small boost for Starmer came from defeats inflicted on Reform UK in areas like Tameside and Wigan, the backyard of his most obvious rival, Andy Burnham. This serves as a reminder that Burnham's path to becoming an MP, let alone prime minister, is far from assured.
The Depth of Discontent
Despite the tactical victory, Labour's underlying problems remain severe. Starmer's unpopularity has surprised many canvassers, who report a level of loathing on the doorstep that seems disproportionate to his actions. Critics note his poor communication and controversial decisions, such as restricting the winter fuel allowance and appointing Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, but these do not compare to the missteps of previous leaders. Yet his approval ratings are as low as those of Tony Blair at his worst or Liz Truss.
If Starmer is granted a stay, it will be his last chance. He is expected to deliver a major speech on Monday, and many believe he must take a bold step toward Europe, acknowledging the failure of Brexit and promising to repair the damage. Polling suggests that undoing Brexit is one of the few issues that can unite Labour's fracturing coalition.
A Fragmented Union
The elections have exposed a deeply fragmented country. In Wales, Labour lost its century-long dominance, being reduced to a handful of seats. In Scotland, Labour again fell to the SNP, which has held power for 19 years. The biggest winner, however, is Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which not only won seats across England but also competed for first place in Wales and second place in Scotland.
This success is a stark reminder that Britain is not immune to the nationalist populism seen elsewhere. Despite Farage's ties to Donald Trump, the scandal of an undisclosed £5m gift from a crypto billionaire, and the failure of Brexit, Reform UK continues to gain ground.
The End of the Duopoly
The old two-party system is crumbling. Both Labour and the Conservatives suffered in these elections, and Britain now faces a seven-party political landscape, with an electoral system ill-suited to such diversity. Moreover, three of the four nations of the UK are now led by first ministers committed to breaking up the union. Finding a single programme that can appeal across such a fragmented country seems nearly impossible.
As one commentator noted, the question of the age may soon shift from 'who governs Britain?' to 'is Britain becoming ungovernable?'
