Scotland's disappointing start under Sebastien Pocognoli has raised questions about how much the Nations League really matters, with the defeat to Slovenia at Hampden on Tuesday night leaving a top-two finish in League B1 looking increasingly unlikely. The performance sparked an angry response from supporters at the national stadium just four games into the Belgian's tenure, and the ripples could be felt all the way through to Euro 2028.
Where do Scotland stand in League B1?
Defeat to Slovenia leaves Scotland in third spot in League B1, needing to win against Switzerland and North Macedonia in the final two fixtures to stand a chance of finishing in the top two. The Swiss currently sit top on 12 points with Slovenia on seven, while Scotland are on four and North Macedonia on zero.
What happens if Scotland finish second or third?
While it's increasingly unlikely, a second-place finish would be the best-case scenario for Pocognoli. In the Nations League, this would see Scotland secure a playoff for League A. A second-place finish would also guarantee a place in Pot 2 for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw, which takes place in Belfast in December.
Finishing third looks likely at this stage, and it's not good news. Scotland would stay in League B and would not be involved in a promotion or relegation playoff. If they finish third or lower, Pocognoli's side would drop into Pot 3 for the draw.
Euro 2028 qualifying format and reserved host spot
There will be 12 groups of four or five nations in qualifying. Scotland will play home and away, giving the nation either six or eight fixtures when the draw is made. Second place in the group no longer means automatic qualification for the tournament, as had happened with Scotland at Euro 2024, when Steve Clarke led the nation to second behind Spain. Only the eight best runners-up will seal an automatic spot, while the rest will enter a playoff.
The Euros will see 24 teams compete. The first 20 spots are filled by the 12 group winners and eight best runners-up. The remaining places are dished out to host nations in what is known as the reserved host spot, and the playoff winners.
As one of the host nations, Scotland are in with a chance of qualifying if they don't reach Euro 2028 as a group winner or best runner-up. Two places are reserved for the four host countries - England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland, who will all be placed in different qualifying groups by UEFA.
The two highest-ranked hosts who have missed out will take the reserved places, with the ranking based on performance in Euro 2028 qualifying. For example, should England and Wales automatically qualify, both Ireland and Scotland would be guaranteed a spot at the tournament no matter how they perform in the group. Should only England qualify while the other three miss out, Scotland will have to outperform Wales and Ireland in qualifying.
