The recent local election results have sent shockwaves through the British political landscape, with the two-party system appearing to fracture as smaller parties make significant gains. Our panel of commentators offers their insights on what these results mean for the future of UK politics.
Greens and Reform UK Celebrate, Labour and Tories Reel
Owen Jones, Guardian columnist: While Reform UK sweeps through small-town England, the Greens are outperforming expectations in urban areas. In Hackney, Labour's traditional stronghold, the Greens won the mayoralty by 12 percentage points. They are now bullish about other inner London communities, such as Lewisham and Haringey. In Manchester, they hoped to take six council seats but won 17. They made sweeping gains in Sheffield, ousting the Labour leader, and in Newcastle. Even in Stockport, Oxford, and Exeter, their vote share increased. Keir Starmer's gamble that a smear campaign would lower the Green vote has backfired. The Greens are well positioned to replace Labour in urban heartlands.
The Tory-Reform Chasm Deepens
Henry Hill, journalist and commentator: On the right, the results are clear: an excellent night for Reform UK, and a potentially dangerous one for the Conservatives. Despite picking up seats in a few places, the overall results are dire for the Tories. Unlike last year's rout, which could be blamed on Boris Johnson's era, this week's elections were fought in areas last contested during Partygate. The 'Kemi bounce' has not translated into tangible electoral gains.
Labour's Internal Battle Over Narrative
Morgan Jones, co-editor of Renewal: Local elections provide a partial view, but it was not a good night for Labour. The party must decide whether to focus on losses to Reform UK or to progressive parties like the Greens. Some argue that obsessively pursuing right-wing voters is causing Labour's unpopularity, especially as only 1% of Reform voters are open to backing Labour. Staunching losses to the left may be necessary.
Conservatives Need a Catalyst for Change
Ruth Davidson, former leader of the Scottish Conservative party: These were tough elections for the Tories. Kemi Badenoch deserves credit for picking the party up, but more is needed. Building in opposition means targeting constituencies of voters, including young people, parents, public sector workers, and business owners. The party must reach out to a broader coalition, including those voting Labour or Liberal Democrat.
Starmer's Toxicity Hurting Labour Councils
Jason Okundaye, Guardian assistant Opinion editor: Despite good work by local Labour councils, voters are repulsed by the national party. In Wandsworth, Labour's radical campaign ended 44 years of Conservative control in 2022, but now the council has fallen to no overall control. Voters acknowledged local achievements but considered the national party too toxic to support. This trend is seen across London, where even popular local governments suffer from association with the national leadership.
Lib Dems: The Quiet Winners
Mark Pack, former president of the Liberal Democrats: The Liberal Democrats have made gains in eight successive rounds of local elections. They now run more councils than the Conservatives and are on course to overtake them in councillor numbers. Dramatic gains in Richmond, where Conservatives have been wiped out, highlight their progress. Smaller gains in Exeter, Ealing, and Lincoln show spreading strength.
Dress Rehearsal for General Election
Carys Afoko, communications strategist: These results are a dress rehearsal for the general election. For the Greens and Reform UK, this was a test of their party machines. Both parties have proven they are more than a protest vote. The Greens' impressive rise is notable. Voters gave a clear verdict on the Labour government; if it doesn't change course and leader, it risks total wipeout. Keir Starmer's unpopularity is a major hurdle.
